Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4AM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$21.63
76¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$131.34 | 68% 98383-46651 (145034) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$94.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.6¢ | $750.88 | $787.35 | +$36.47 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $306.99 | $153.67 | -$1.14 | 64% 57224-32008 (89232) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $80.65 | $82.42 | +$1.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $74.15 | $71.25 | -$2.9 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $90.5 | $91.97 | +$1.47 | 57% 6471-4790 (11261) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $76.43 | $54.04 | -$22.39 | 74% 101896-36253 (138149) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.9¢ | $52.15 | $52.13 | -$0.02 | 51% 6332-6019 (12351) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Upavg 71.5¢ | $45.48 | $44.5 | -$0.98 | 56% 2560-2016 (4576) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $10 | $10.29 | +$0.29 | 78% 265-75 (340) |
Invested
$1,785.9
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$131.34
Record
68%
98383-46651 (145034)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$306.99
Value
$153.67
PnL
-$1.14
Record
64%
57224-32008 (89232)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.5
Value
$91.97
PnL
+$1.47
Record
57%
6471-4790 (11261)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$76.43
Value
$54.04
PnL
-$22.39
Record
74%
101896-36253 (138149)
Invested
$52.15
Value
$52.13
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
6332-6019 (12351)
Invested
$45.48
Value
$44.5
PnL
-$0.98
Record
56%
2560-2016 (4576)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$0.29
Record
78%
265-75 (340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.