Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 68.2¢ | $713.07 | $587.47 | -$125.6 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
FI fiankeeCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $426.6 | — | -$426.6 | 56% 995-797 (1792) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $408.91 | — | -$408.91 | 68% 98464-46742 (145206) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $524.8 | $651.95 | +$127.15 | 57% 6498-4811 (11309) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57¢ | $230.14 | — | -$230.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $294.66 | $651.95 | +$357.29 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $732.82 | $799.24 | +$66.42 | 56% 2573-2023 (4596) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.7¢ | $549 | $799.24 | +$250.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.8¢ | $183.82 | — | -$183.82 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 43¢ | $198.93 | — | -$85.54 | 55% 49869-40477 (90346) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 51¢ | $94.09 | $184.49 | +$90.4 | 58% 50666-36801 (87467) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $63.9 | — | -$63.9 | 56% 49079-39302 (88381) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $51.22 | — | -$51.22 | 55% 47823-39403 (87226) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 59.1¢ | $42.25 | — | -$42.25 | 66% 98373-50815 (149188) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $26.77 | $45.88 | +$19.11 | 51% 6457-6156 (12613) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $13.01 | $25.51 | +$12.5 | 62% 43491-26415 (69906) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $5.55 | — | -$5.55 | 51% 19648-18799 (38447) |
BE beeemwCTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $10 | — | -$10 | 78% 273-75 (348) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$713.07
Value
$587.47
PnL
-$125.6
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
$426.6
Value
—
PnL
-$426.6
Record
56%
995-797 (1792)
Invested
$408.91
Value
—
PnL
-$408.91
Record
68%
98464-46742 (145206)
Invested
$524.8
Value
$651.95
PnL
+$127.15
Record
57%
6498-4811 (11309)
Both legs:
Invested
$732.82
Value
$799.24
PnL
+$66.42
Record
56%
2573-2023 (4596)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.93
Value
—
PnL
-$85.54
Record
55%
49869-40477 (90346)
Invested
$94.09
Value
$184.49
PnL
+$90.4
Record
58%
50666-36801 (87467)
Invested
$63.9
Value
—
PnL
-$63.9
Record
56%
49079-39302 (88381)
Invested
$51.22
Value
—
PnL
-$51.22
Record
55%
47823-39403 (87226)
Invested
$42.25
Value
—
PnL
-$42.25
Record
66%
98373-50815 (149188)
Invested
$26.77
Value
$45.88
PnL
+$19.11
Record
51%
6457-6156 (12613)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.01
Value
$25.51
PnL
+$12.5
Record
62%
43491-26415 (69906)
Invested
$5.55
Value
—
PnL
-$5.55
Record
51%
19648-18799 (38447)
Invested
$10
Value
—
PnL
-$10
Record
78%
273-75 (348)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $587.47
fiankee
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
peepeepoopoo24
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Anon455
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $184.49
bosona
CTRUp — $0
almach
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0