Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2PM ET

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (42%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$69.33

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 99.9¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,291

Combined PnL+$53.46

Down7 traders

Total Value$433

Total Shares1,659

Combined PnL+$15.86

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.5¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$212.63	—
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 79.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$115.66	—
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$262.5	+$12.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$242.5	-$7.5
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$262.5	+$12.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$237.5	-$12.5
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 46.6¢	$317.64	$322.64	+$4.99	—
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 84.8¢	$226.04	$204.08	-$21.96	—
AN Anon455	Upavg 67.5¢	$192.98	$171.19	-$12.39	—
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 46¢	$103.77	$56.55	+$8.82	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$49.6	$40.46	-$9.14	—
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 3.6¢	$21.6	$21.3	-$0.3	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$10.56	$11.99	+$1.43	—
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 23.5¢	$9.5	$8.63	-$0.88	—
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$6.19	$8.06	+$1.86	—
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 4.9¢	$3.91	$3.84	-$0.07	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,260.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$212.63

Record

—

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,492.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$115.66

Record

—

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$505

PnL

+$5

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$317.64

Value

$322.64

PnL

+$4.99

Record

—

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$226.04

Value

$204.08

PnL

-$21.96

Record

—

Anon455

Invested

$192.98

Value

$171.19

PnL

-$12.39

Record

—

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$103.77

Value

$56.55

PnL

+$8.82

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$40.46

PnL

-$9.14

Record

—

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.56

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$1.43

Record

—

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.88

Record

—

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.19

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$1.86

Record

—

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.84

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.