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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 11AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

4

Up 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$127.08

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$169.4

Down2 traders

Total Value$149.16

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$42.32

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$1.4K	$876.89	+$12.71	67% 103643-51892 (155535)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$580.59	$876.89	+$296.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$283.5	—	-$283.53
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$349.08	$170	+$2.39	63% 61046-35508 (96554)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$84.39	$170	+$85.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$83.2	—	-$83.21
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$185.69	$114.63	+$23.5	13% 19667-136223 (155890)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$71.13	$114.63	+$43.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$20	—	-$20
AL almachCTR	Upavg 46¢	$154.9	—	-$154.9	55% 50494-42140 (92634)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$60.39	$79.99	+$19.6	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$99.17	$69.17	+$22.72	50% 10930-10811 (21741)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$30	—	-$14.5	58% 41132-29240 (70372)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,445.71

Value

$876.89

PnL

+$12.71

Record

67%

103643-51892 (155535)

Both legs:

Down$580.5966.2¢+$296.24

Up$283.549.8¢-$283.53

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$349.08

Value

$170

PnL

+$2.39

Record

63%

61046-35508 (96554)

Both legs:

Down$84.3949.6¢+$85.6

Up$83.246.5¢-$83.21

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$185.69

Value

$114.63

PnL

+$23.5

Record

13%

19667-136223 (155890)

Both legs:

Down$71.1362.1¢+$43.5

Up$2028.1¢-$20

Invested

$154.9

Value

—

PnL

-$154.9

Record

55%

50494-42140 (92634)

Invested

$60.39

Value

$79.99

PnL

+$19.6

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Invested

$99.17

Value

$69.17

PnL

+$22.72

Record

50%

10930-10811 (21741)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

—

PnL

-$14.5

Record

58%

41132-29240 (70372)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x66d46c3e...a66e79

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-november-8-2026-11am-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Hsilverbasher

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Up — $0

Anon455

Down — $79.99

ply-pm2

Down — $69.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

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