Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4

Up8¢Down92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$547.04

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 92.5¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up8%

Down93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,887

Combined PnL+$547.04

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 84¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$16.51	63% 60039-34531 (94570)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.1¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$354.24	67% 101382-49705 (151087)
BO bosona	Downavg 79¢	$621.49	$666.04	+$44.55	55% 51185-41537 (92722)
MO mo-money	Downavg 77.9¢	$395.03	$473.08	+$78.05	55% 51819-42268 (94087)
AL almach	Downavg 75¢	$340.27	$400.62	+$60.35	55% 49727-41275 (91002)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$23.64	$32.72	+$9.08	51% 9566-9156 (18722)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$26.95	$26.95	+$0	58% 51753-37796 (89549)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 82.8¢	$37.24	$22.5	-$14.75	48% 9790-10702 (20492)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$11.5	$10.5	-$1	58% 62267-45634 (107901)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$3,390.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$16.51

Record

63%

60039-34531 (94570)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,300.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$354.24

Record

67%

101382-49705 (151087)

bosona

Down

Invested

$621.49

Value

$666.04

PnL

+$44.55

Record

55%

51185-41537 (92722)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$395.03

Value

$473.08

PnL

+$78.05

Record

55%

51819-42268 (94087)

almach

Down

Invested

$340.27

Value

$400.62

PnL

+$60.35

Record

55%

49727-41275 (91002)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$23.64

Value

$32.72

PnL

+$9.08

Record

51%

9566-9156 (18722)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$26.95

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

51753-37796 (89549)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$37.24

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$14.75

Record

48%

9790-10702 (20492)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$1

Record

58%

62267-45634 (107901)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.