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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

7

Up 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$638.32

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,315

Combined PnL+$668.7

Down1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$30.38

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 71¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$149.66	67% 101208-49539 (150747)
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.7¢	$427.08	—	-$427.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 71¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$576.74
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 72.2¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$406.57	64% 59925-34440 (94365)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.2¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$872.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.6¢	$466.24	—	-$466.24
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$817.61	$826.09	+$8.48	74% 104192-36821 (141013)
MO mo-money	Upavg 57.9¢	$275.82	$474.86	+$199.04	55% 51619-42096 (93715)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44.8¢	$173.86	$387.67	+$213.81	58% 39376-28442 (67818)
BO bosona	Upavg 60.9¢	$189.94	$311.72	+$121.78	55% 50953-41356 (92309)
AL almach	Upavg 61¢	$183	$300	+$117	55% 49595-41195 (90790)
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$53.6	$57	+$3.4	58% 51724-37762 (89486)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$24.51	$57	+$32.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$29.09	—	-$29.09
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$30.38	—	-$30.38	51% 9461-9063 (18524)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$6.4	$15	+$8.6	48% 9734-10623 (20357)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,839.63

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$149.66

Record

67%

101208-49539 (150747)

Both legs:

Down$427.089.7¢-$427.08

Up$1,412.5571¢+$576.74

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$2,732.51

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$406.57

Record

64%

59925-34440 (94365)

Both legs:

Up$2,266.2772.2¢+$872.82

Down$466.2428.6¢-$466.24

Invested

$817.61

Value

$826.09

PnL

+$8.48

Record

74%

104192-36821 (141013)

Invested

$275.82

Value

$474.86

PnL

+$199.04

Record

55%

51619-42096 (93715)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$173.86

Value

$387.67

PnL

+$213.81

Record

58%

39376-28442 (67818)

Invested

$189.94

Value

$311.72

PnL

+$121.78

Record

55%

50953-41356 (92309)

Invested

$183

Value

$300

PnL

+$117

Record

55%

49595-41195 (90790)

Invested

$53.6

Value

$57

PnL

+$3.4

Record

58%

51724-37762 (89486)

Both legs:

Up$24.5143¢+$32.49

Down$29.0951¢-$29.09

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$30.38

Value

—

PnL

-$30.38

Record

51%

9461-9063 (18524)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.6

Record

48%

9734-10623 (20357)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4579edb4...c65387

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-november-4-2026-1am-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

BoneOhio

Up — $826.09

mo-money

Up — $474.86

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $387.67

bosona

Up — $311.72

almach

Up — $300

PBot-6

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $15

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