Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$29.01
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bibana100ARB<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $1.4K | $652.38 | -$846.1 | — 6-9 (15) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.3¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $200 | $652.38 | +$348 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $1.0K | $941.58 | -$104.46 | 57% 6824-5059 (11883) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $697.27 | $825.23 | +$127.96 | 55% 3160-2576 (5736) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 48¢ | $192 | $399.99 | +$208 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
DU DubaiitalyCTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $195.55 | — | -$195.55 | 49% 184-194 (378) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.1¢ | $80.94 | — | -$80.94 | 12% 18366-133342 (151708) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $68.64 | $84.32 | +$15.68 | 52% 8826-8271 (17097) |
BO bosona | Downavg 65¢ | $117 | $180 | +$63 | 55% 50451-40567 (91018) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $11.7 | $20 | +$8.3 | 48% 9289-10165 (19454) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $10.78 | $22 | +$11.22 | 58% 61491-44895 (106386) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.2¢ | $31.9 | — | -$31.9 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.9¢ | $1.9 | — | +$7.7 | 51% 20517-19606 (40123) |
Invested
$1,394.1
Value
$652.38
PnL
-$846.1
Record
—
6-9 (15)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,046.03
Value
$941.58
PnL
-$104.46
Record
57%
6824-5059 (11883)
Invested
$697.27
Value
$825.23
PnL
+$127.96
Record
55%
3160-2576 (5736)
Invested
$192
Value
$399.99
PnL
+$208
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Invested
$195.55
Value
—
PnL
-$195.55
Record
49%
184-194 (378)
Invested
$80.94
Value
—
PnL
-$80.94
Record
12%
18366-133342 (151708)
Invested
$68.64
Value
$84.32
PnL
+$15.68
Record
52%
8826-8271 (17097)
Invested
$117
Value
$180
PnL
+$63
Record
55%
50451-40567 (91018)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$11.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.3
Record
48%
9289-10165 (19454)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$22
PnL
+$11.22
Record
58%
61491-44895 (106386)
Invested
$31.9
Value
—
PnL
-$31.9
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
+$7.7
Record
51%
20517-19606 (40123)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
bibana100
ARBArbitrage — excluded
peepeepoopoo24
Down — $941.58
Anon455
Down — $825.23
38791873984189
Down — $399.99
Dubaiitaly
CTRUp — $0
Hsilverbasher
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $84.32
bosona
Down — $180
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $20
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $22