Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9AM ET

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$111.34

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 99.5¢

+49% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,736

Combined PnL+$115.3

Up2 traders

Total Value$4.64

Total Shares346

Combined PnL-$3.96

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$160.81	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.1¢	$532.08	$488.13	-$7.07	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
MO mo-money	Downavg 70¢	$422.02	$297.15	+$98.33	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 80.2¢	$261.13	$223.67	-$37.46	49% 932-964 (1896)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 54.5¢	$483.89	$151.11	+$64.46	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
AL almach	Downavg 70¢	$161.27	$150.51	+$54.25	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 41¢	$61.12	$144.66	+$83.54	51% 409-398 (807)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$63.03	$58.19	+$16.17	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 81.2¢	$272.53	$25.67	-$4.16	46% 1673-1927 (3600)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 72¢	$12.24	$16.49	+$4.25	48% 222-236 (458)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 68¢	$15.9	$9.7	+$3.8	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$94.95	$3.88	-$91.07	50% 955-949 (1904)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 13.8¢	$126.66	$0.76	+$87.11	45% 88-106 (194)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,340.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$160.81

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$532.08

Value

$488.13

PnL

-$7.07

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$422.02

Value

$297.15

PnL

+$98.33

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$261.13

Value

$223.67

PnL

-$37.46

Record

49%

932-964 (1896)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$483.89

Value

$151.11

PnL

+$64.46

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

almach

Down

Invested

$161.27

Value

$150.51

PnL

+$54.25

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$61.12

Value

$144.66

PnL

+$83.54

Record

51%

409-398 (807)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$63.03

Value

$58.19

PnL

+$16.17

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$272.53

Value

$25.67

PnL

-$4.16

Record

46%

1673-1927 (3600)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.24

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$4.25

Record

48%

222-236 (458)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.9

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$3.8

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$94.95

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$91.07

Record

50%

955-949 (1904)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$126.66

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$87.11

Record

45%

88-106 (194)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.