Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8AM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (45%) · Down at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up39¢Down61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$160.85

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 61.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up39%

Down62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$767.14

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL-$143.72

Up6 traders

Total Value$298.64

Total Shares481

Combined PnL-$17.13

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 54¢	$728.18	$647.26	+$14.49	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$355.66	$483.92	+$138.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$286.71	$163.34	-$124.23
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$506.66	$495.07	-$7.59	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$254.74	$255.53	+$0.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$241.92	$239.54	-$8.38
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.8¢	$1.9K	$420.52	-$287.28	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 26.5¢	$123.95	$194.7	+$156.09	45% 84-104 (188)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 71¢	$170.4	$176.4	+$6	49% 482-498 (980)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$166.21	$110.54	-$55.67	49% 923-952 (1875)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$131.21	$79.79	-$51.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$35	$30.75	-$4.25
PB PBot-6	Downavg 51.2¢	$102.4	$99	-$3.4	50% 940-932 (1872)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$67	$50	-$17	50% 403-397 (800)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 66.5¢	$358.47	$44	-$7.88	46% 1652-1902 (3554)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$35.37	$35.89	+$0.52	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$17.11	$17.36	+$0.25	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
FI fiankeeCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$16	$16.8	+$0.8	55% 31-25 (56)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 47.3¢	$114.61	$8.92	-$1.25	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$27.51	$2.19	-$7.7	60% 4136-2815 (6951)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$728.18

Value

$647.26

PnL

+$14.49

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

Both legs:

Down$355.6654¢+$138.72

Up$286.7146.5¢-$124.23

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.66

Value

$495.07

PnL

-$7.59

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$254.7450.3¢+$0.79

Down$241.9250¢-$8.38

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,931.29

Value

$420.52

PnL

-$287.28

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$123.95

Value

$194.7

PnL

+$156.09

Record

45%

84-104 (188)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$170.4

Value

$176.4

PnL

+$6

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$166.21

Value

$110.54

PnL

-$55.67

Record

49%

923-952 (1875)

Both legs:

Up$131.2163.3¢-$51.42

Down$3570¢-$4.25

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$102.4

Value

$99

PnL

-$3.4

Record

50%

940-932 (1872)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$67

Value

$50

PnL

-$17

Record

50%

403-397 (800)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$358.47

Value

$44

PnL

-$7.88

Record

46%

1652-1902 (3554)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$35.37

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$0.52

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

fiankeeCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

31-25 (56)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$114.61

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$27.51

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$7.7

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.1%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.