Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up85¢Down15¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$242.67

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 84.5¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up85%

Down16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,919

Combined PnL+$301.52

Down4 traders

Total Value$110.61

Total Shares356

Combined PnL-$58.85

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 69.9¢	$925	$905.77	+$123.62	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$515	+$15	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$360	+$110
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$155	-$95
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$411.51	$426.81	+$15.3	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$287.52	$340.97	+$53.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$124	$85.84	-$38.15
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 47.7¢	$223.03	$376.14	+$153.76	45% 84-104 (188)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 73.2¢	$177.65	$191.11	+$13.46	49% 923-952 (1875)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 52.8¢	$135.17	$79.39	-$55.78	50% 940-932 (1872)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$65.5	$69	+$3.5	50% 403-397 (800)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 78.2¢	$331.46	$67.24	-$10.69	46% 1652-1902 (3554)
FI fiankee<$100	Upavg 50¢	$47	$64.86	+$17.86	55% 31-25 (56)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 26.4¢	$18.29	$15.84	-$2.45	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 19.7¢	$22.25	$11.14	-$1.09	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$3.77	$4.24	+$0.47	51% 1622-1530 (3152)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$925

Value

$905.77

PnL

+$123.62

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$515

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$110

Down$25050¢-$95

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$411.51

Value

$426.81

PnL

+$15.3

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Both legs:

Up$287.5260.3¢+$53.45

Down$12441.2¢-$38.15

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$223.03

Value

$376.14

PnL

+$153.76

Record

45%

84-104 (188)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$177.65

Value

$191.11

PnL

+$13.46

Record

49%

923-952 (1875)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$135.17

Value

$79.39

PnL

-$55.78

Record

50%

940-932 (1872)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$65.5

Value

$69

PnL

+$3.5

Record

50%

403-397 (800)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$331.46

Value

$67.24

PnL

-$10.69

Record

46%

1652-1902 (3554)

fiankee<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$64.86

PnL

+$17.86

Record

55%

31-25 (56)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.29

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$2.45

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.25

Value

$11.14

PnL

-$1.09

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.77

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.