Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 5PM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up89¢Down11¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$103.6

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 89¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up89%

Down11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,192

Combined PnL+$89.11

Down5 traders

Total Value$72.93

Total Shares569

Combined PnL-$192.71

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 70¢	$654.11	$731.16	+$89.67	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$515.4	$510.6	+$0	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$265.4	$397.8	+$132.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$240	$112.8	-$132.4
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 14.1¢	$323.51	$284.09	+$91.56	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.1¢	$167.1	$159.51	-$7.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$73.95	$124.58	+$99.15
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 76.6¢	$253.96	$249.92	-$2.45	46% 1747-2012 (3759)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$106.95	$177.31	+$70.36	49% 966-1024 (1990)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$59.03	$121.13	+$62.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.1¢	$47.92	$56.17	+$8.25
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 53¢	$248.09	$58.5	-$189.59	46% 97-113 (210)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 81¢	$47.59	$51.99	+$4.4	52% 1731-1604 (3335)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 88.5¢	$125.97	$22.21	-$5.17	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
BE beeemw<$100	Upavg 79¢	$15	$16.61	+$1.61	— 11-6 (17)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$9.1	$10.14	+$1.03	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 16.4¢	$11.78	$8.98	-$2.8	47% 233-258 (491)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 16.2¢	$2.59	$2.17	-$0.43	51% 430-414 (844)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$1.7	$1.85	+$0.15	51% 2264-2146 (4410)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$1.47	$1.43	-$0.04	50% 1010-1000 (2010)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$654.11

Value

$731.16

PnL

+$89.67

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$515.4

Value

$510.6

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Up$265.451¢+$132.4

Down$24050¢-$132.4

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$323.51

Value

$284.09

PnL

+$91.56

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Both legs:

Down$167.114.1¢-$7.58

Up$73.9551.3¢+$99.15

rabadabadoo

Invested

$253.96

Value

$249.92

PnL

-$2.45

Record

46%

1747-2012 (3759)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$106.95

Value

$177.31

PnL

+$70.36

Record

49%

966-1024 (1990)

Both legs:

Up$59.0340.7¢+$62.1

Down$47.9214.1¢+$8.25

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$248.09

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$189.59

Record

46%

97-113 (210)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$47.59

Value

$51.99

PnL

+$4.4

Record

52%

1731-1604 (3335)

ply-pm2

Invested

$125.97

Value

$22.21

PnL

-$5.17

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

beeemw<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$1.61

Record

—

11-6 (17)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$1.03

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.78

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$2.8

Record

47%

233-258 (491)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

430-414 (844)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1010-1000 (2010)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.