Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (56%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4PM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (58%) · Up at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up45¢Down55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$7.25

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 44.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Down 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up45%

Down56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$408.51

Total Shares415

Combined PnL-$33.39

Up7 traders

Total Value$505.72

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$40.64

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$155.11	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$582.86	$611.36	+$28.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$718.43	$534.83	-$183.6
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$531.08	$509.66	+$2.42	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$255.84	$309.51	+$48.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$252.22	$200.15	-$45.85
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 74.5¢	$212.35	$216.95	+$4.59	46% 1737-1999 (3736)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 45.8¢	$164.82	$181.6	+$16.79	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$135.14	$169.03	+$33.89	49% 960-1012 (1972)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$82.64	$104.53	+$21.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$52.5	$64.5	+$12
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68.2¢	$318.75	$151.28	-$40.36	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
FI fiankeeCTR	Upavg 50¢	$148	$146.52	-$1.48	55% 33-27 (60)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 46¢	$93.43	$102.57	+$9.14	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$40.59	$45.55	+$4.96	51% 4973-4711 (9684)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$19.04	$20.44	+$1.4	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 71.5¢	$31.77	$17.27	+$3.2	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 86¢	$14.32	$14.07	-$0.25	51% 427-411 (838)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$9.52	$8.94	-$0.58	50% 1006-996 (2002)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$8.42	$7.1	-$1.33	60% 4328-2942 (7270)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$18.36	$1.93	+$11.16	46% 96-112 (208)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,301.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$155.11

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Both legs:

Up$582.8649.1¢+$28.5

Down$718.4365.1¢-$183.6

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$531.08

Value

$509.66

PnL

+$2.42

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Up$255.8449.2¢+$48.27

Down$252.2251¢-$45.85

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$212.35

Value

$216.95

PnL

+$4.59

Record

46%

1737-1999 (3736)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$164.82

Value

$181.6

PnL

+$16.79

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$135.14

Value

$169.03

PnL

+$33.89

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

Both legs:

Invested

$318.75

Value

$151.28

PnL

-$40.36

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

fiankeeCTR

Invested

$148

Value

$146.52

PnL

-$1.48

Record

55%

33-27 (60)

almachCTR

Invested

$93.43

Value

$102.57

PnL

+$9.14

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$45.55

PnL

+$4.96

Record

51%

4973-4711 (9684)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$19.04

Value

$20.44

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.77

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$3.2

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$14.32

Value

$14.07

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

427-411 (838)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$9.52

Value

$8.94

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

1006-996 (2002)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$8.42

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$1.33

Record

60%

4328-2942 (7270)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$18.36

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$11.16

Record

46%

96-112 (208)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Down 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.