Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4AM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (69%) · Up at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up88¢Down12¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$139.93

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 87.5¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up88%

Down13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,778

Combined PnL+$151.85

Down4 traders

Total Value$307.32

Total Shares710

Combined PnL-$11.92

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$611.12	$619.26	+$8.14	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.9¢	$510.2	$494.58	-$15.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 19¢	$100.92	$124.68	+$23.76
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85.8¢	$1.6K	$588.56	+$37.25	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.4¢	$518.32	$500.73	-$2.13	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 58.8¢	$360.05	$485.51	+$125.46	49% 908-934 (1842)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 87.2¢	$408.94	$415.06	+$6.11	44% 77-100 (177)
MO mo-money	Upavg 82.8¢	$430.54	$400.28	-$30.26	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
AL almach	Upavg 80.5¢	$500.59	$392.47	+$4.37	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
BO bosona	Upavg 77.8¢	$396.62	$371.7	+$5.08	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 51¢	$280.25	$271.83	-$8.42	50% 908-909 (1817)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 66.8¢	$247.43	$253.58	+$6.16	47% 1617-1858 (3475)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 27.2¢	$32.32	$17.38	-$3.84	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 16.3¢	$10.5	$10.61	+$0.11	50% 1679-1712 (3391)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 86¢	$110.29	$8.67	-$0.2	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$7.27	$7.5	+$0.23	50% 390-388 (778)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$611.12

Value

$619.26

PnL

+$8.14

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

Both legs:

Up$510.278.9¢-$15.62

Down$100.9219¢+$23.76

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,626.92

Value

$588.56

PnL

+$37.25

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$518.32

Value

$500.73

PnL

-$2.13

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$360.05

Value

$485.51

PnL

+$125.46

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$408.94

Value

$415.06

PnL

+$6.11

Record

44%

77-100 (177)

mo-money

Invested

$430.54

Value

$400.28

PnL

-$30.26

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

almach

Invested

$500.59

Value

$392.47

PnL

+$4.37

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

bosona

Invested

$396.62

Value

$371.7

PnL

+$5.08

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$280.25

Value

$271.83

PnL

-$8.42

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$247.43

Value

$253.58

PnL

+$6.16

Record

47%

1617-1858 (3475)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.32

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$3.84

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

1679-1712 (3391)

ply-pm2

Invested

$110.29

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

390-388 (778)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.