Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3PM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$33.4

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 96.5¢

+44% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,634

Combined PnL-$14.21

Down4 traders

Total Value$507.89

Total Shares604

Combined PnL-$19.18

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 66.5¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$256.54	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.9¢	$540.29	$494.2	-$14.01	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 70.8¢	$596.73	$261.51	-$88.85	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
BE beeemw	Upavg 72¢	$126.36	$169.36	+$43	— 11-6 (17)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 48.3¢	$107.81	$158.23	+$50.42	49% 960-1012 (1972)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 74.1¢	$400.95	$142.85	+$11.06	46% 1737-1999 (3736)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$22.68	$12.04	-$10.65	51% 427-411 (838)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 81¢	$11.65	$11.36	-$0.29	60% 4328-2942 (7270)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 97¢	$67.8	$10.91	-$11.33	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 36¢	$14.86	$1.01	+$4.54	52% 1724-1594 (3318)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 32.6¢	$153.47	$0.95	+$238.32	46% 96-112 (208)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$8.11	$0.64	+$0.93	52% 1710-1607 (3317)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,126.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$256.54

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$540.29

Value

$494.2

PnL

-$14.01

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$596.73

Value

$261.51

PnL

-$88.85

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

beeemw

Invested

$126.36

Value

$169.36

PnL

+$43

Record

—

11-6 (17)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$107.81

Value

$158.23

PnL

+$50.42

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$400.95

Value

$142.85

PnL

+$11.06

Record

46%

1737-1999 (3736)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.68

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$10.65

Record

51%

427-411 (838)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.29

Record

60%

4328-2942 (7270)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$67.8

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$11.33

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.86

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$4.54

Record

52%

1724-1594 (3318)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$153.47

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$238.32

Record

46%

96-112 (208)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.11

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.93

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.