Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$232.38

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 98.7¢

+32% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL+$238.65

Down4 traders

Total Value$16.3

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$6.27

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$150.62	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$541.8	$500	-$3.6	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 83.8¢	$528.29	$382.15	+$56.51	46% 94-110 (204)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 80.4¢	$350.6	$375.85	+$27.04	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 88.8¢	$221.38	$216.81	-$4.57	49% 950-986 (1936)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 84.8¢	$149.09	$148.55	-$0.53	51% 422-405 (827)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 90.4¢	$429.65	$146.87	+$13.32	46% 1715-1974 (3689)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$80.82	$85.02	+$4.21	50% 986-979 (1965)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54¢	$11.42	$10.86	-$0.57	60% 4284-2912 (7196)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$6.71	$8.84	+$2.13	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 98¢	$86.05	$4.99	-$3.78	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 13¢	$4.02	$4.5	+$0.47	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 10.5¢	$11.68	$2.78	-$8.89	48% 233-256 (489)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$0.16	$0.18	+$0.02	51% 2213-2109 (4322)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,422.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$150.62

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$541.8

Value

$500

PnL

-$3.6

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$528.29

Value

$382.15

PnL

+$56.51

Record

46%

94-110 (204)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$350.6

Value

$375.85

PnL

+$27.04

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$221.38

Value

$216.81

PnL

-$4.57

Record

49%

950-986 (1936)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$149.09

Value

$148.55

PnL

-$0.53

Record

51%

422-405 (827)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$429.65

Value

$146.87

PnL

+$13.32

Record

46%

1715-1974 (3689)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$80.82

Value

$85.02

PnL

+$4.21

Record

50%

986-979 (1965)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$10.86

PnL

-$0.57

Record

60%

4284-2912 (7196)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.71

Value

$8.84

PnL

+$2.13

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$86.05

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$3.78

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.02

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.68

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$8.89

Record

48%

233-256 (489)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.