Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2AM ET

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$171.66

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 99.7¢

+63% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL-$70.06

Up6 traders

Total Value$244.95

Total Shares1,098

Combined PnL-$101.6

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.5¢	$576.89	$547.87	-$29.02	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51¢	$532.76	$500.42	+$0.98	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.8¢	$906.22	$380.48	-$42.12	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 73.9¢	$261.7	$256.43	-$5.27	47% 1598-1836 (3434)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 48¢	$227.36	$158.79	-$68.57	45% 77-95 (172)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$96	$102.5	+$6.5	49% 899-931 (1830)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$72	$78.75	+$6.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 48¢	$24	$23.75	-$0.25
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$84.39	$86.21	+$1.81	50% 897-890 (1787)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 17.1¢	$79.3	$57.99	-$21.32	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$30.47	$23.9	+$3.56	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$12.07	$11.95	-$0.12	48% 216-230 (446)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$16.37	$9.44	-$6.93	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 10.8¢	$5.6	$4.4	-$1.19	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 11.3¢	$5.85	$2.38	-$3.46	51% 1558-1472 (3030)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$576.89

Value

$547.87

PnL

-$29.02

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$532.76

Value

$500.42

PnL

+$0.98

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$906.22

Value

$380.48

PnL

-$42.12

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$261.7

Value

$256.43

PnL

-$5.27

Record

47%

1598-1836 (3434)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$227.36

Value

$158.79

PnL

-$68.57

Record

45%

77-95 (172)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$96

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

49%

899-931 (1830)

Both legs:

Invested

$84.39

Value

$86.21

PnL

+$1.81

Record

50%

897-890 (1787)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$79.3

Value

$57.99

PnL

-$21.32

Record

52%

1562-1470 (3032)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$30.47

Value

$23.9

PnL

+$3.56

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$12.07

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

216-230 (446)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$16.37

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$6.93

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1.19

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$3.46

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.