Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (75%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1AM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up26¢Down74¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$58.9

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 25.5¢

-36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up26%

Down75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$327.25

Total Shares1,041

Combined PnL-$64.87

Down2 traders

Total Value$134.17

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$5.97

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$511.4	$498.6	-$1.8	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$240	$256.8	+$17.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$261.4	$241.8	-$19.6
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$435.69	$385.77	-$49.92	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$274.67	$220.1	-$54.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$161.02	$165.66	+$4.65
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 42.2¢	$356.11	$343.05	-$5.16	49% 896-928 (1824)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$140.16	$190.51	+$53.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$210.84	$152.54	-$58.3
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$243.34	$253.49	+$10.15	47% 1588-1821 (3409)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$151.53	$197.58	+$46.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$91.81	$55.91	-$35.91
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$351.83	$174.49	-$1.8	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$110.71	$128.74	+$11.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$67.15	$45.75	-$12.92
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$248.36	$144.57	-$103.8	44% 74-94 (168)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.9¢	$108.81	$114.94	+$6.13	50% 893-886 (1779)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$83.13	$90.55	+$7.42	51% 1543-1462 (3005)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$49.87	$49.07	+$4.7	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$27.25	$24.05	-$3.19	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 72.1¢	$166.37	$19.23	-$0.16	54% 2526-2126 (4652)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$18	$18.36	+$0.36	50% 386-380 (766)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$91.8	$0.65	+$29.63	52% 1551-1455 (3006)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$511.4

Value

$498.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Down$24050¢+$17.8

Up$261.450.3¢-$19.6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$435.69

Value

$385.77

PnL

-$49.92

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

Both legs:

Down$274.6760.5¢-$54.57

Up$161.0250.1¢+$4.65

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$356.11

Value

$343.05

PnL

-$5.16

Record

49%

896-928 (1824)

Both legs:

Down$140.1651.1¢+$53.14

Up$210.8442.2¢-$58.3

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$243.34

Value

$253.49

PnL

+$10.15

Record

47%

1588-1821 (3409)

Both legs:

Down$151.5359.4¢+$46.05

Up$91.8137¢-$35.91

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$351.83

Value

$174.49

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

Both legs:

Down$110.7159.8¢+$11.12

Up$67.1544.8¢-$12.92

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$248.36

Value

$144.57

PnL

-$103.8

Record

44%

74-94 (168)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$108.81

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$6.13

Record

50%

893-886 (1779)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$83.13

Value

$90.55

PnL

+$7.42

Record

51%

1543-1462 (3005)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$49.87

Value

$49.07

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$27.25

Value

$24.05

PnL

-$3.19

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$166.37

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

2526-2126 (4652)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

386-380 (766)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$91.8

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$29.63

Record

52%

1551-1455 (3006)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.9%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$258.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

358.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.