Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12AM ET

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$123.7

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 94.5¢

+57% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,819

Combined PnL+$32.09

Up6 traders

Total Value$170.09

Total Shares942

Combined PnL-$155.78

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.1¢	$501.94	$498.47	+$0.53	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 67.2¢	$506.34	$330.16	+$1.9	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63.2¢	$285.3	$273.11	-$12.19	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 75.8¢	$268.74	$263.19	-$2.42	47% 1582-1804 (3386)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 51.2¢	$157.91	$201.97	+$44.06	49% 892-926 (1818)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$90.33	$95.03	+$4.7	51% 4780-4566 (9346)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$90.06	$84.12	-$5.95	50% 889-885 (1774)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 43.8¢	$207.58	$45.03	-$162.55	45% 74-92 (166)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 82.7¢	$159.83	$33.16	+$1.49	54% 2509-2112 (4621)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 58.2¢	$23.68	$15.96	+$4.68	60% 3949-2687 (6636)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 8.3¢	$12.14	$13.88	+$1.74	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$12.75	$12.17	-$0.58	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$2.28	$3.13	+$0.85	50% 383-380 (763)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.85	+$0.05	51% 1530-1451 (2981)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$501.94

Value

$498.47

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$506.34

Value

$330.16

PnL

+$1.9

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$285.3

Value

$273.11

PnL

-$12.19

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$268.74

Value

$263.19

PnL

-$2.42

Record

47%

1582-1804 (3386)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$157.91

Value

$201.97

PnL

+$44.06

Record

49%

892-926 (1818)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$90.33

Value

$95.03

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

4780-4566 (9346)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$90.06

Value

$84.12

PnL

-$5.95

Record

50%

889-885 (1774)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$207.58

Value

$45.03

PnL

-$162.55

Record

45%

74-92 (166)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$159.83

Value

$33.16

PnL

+$1.49

Record

54%

2509-2112 (4621)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$23.68

Value

$15.96

PnL

+$4.68

Record

60%

3949-2687 (6636)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$1.74

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.85

Record

50%

383-380 (763)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

1530-1451 (2981)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.