Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11AM ET

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up5¢Down95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$176.75

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 95.5¢

+50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up5%

Down96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,446

Combined PnL+$25.48

Up5 traders

Total Value$200.47

Total Shares1,141

Combined PnL-$202.23

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69.6¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$223.75	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$562.75	$663.94	+$101.18	49% 938-977 (1915)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$307.15	$510.97	+$203.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.9¢	$255.6	$152.97	-$102.63
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49.9¢	$538.26	$499.77	+$13.64	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 70.9¢	$1.8K	$498.48	-$29.02	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 55.5¢	$217.95	$308.91	+$90.96	51% 415-401 (816)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.3¢	$141.39	$236.24	+$94.85	50% 972-964 (1936)
MO mo-money	Downavg 40¢	$64.83	$141.01	+$76.18	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
FI fiankeeCTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$272	$74.46	-$197.54	55% 32-26 (58)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$64.66	$60.62	+$4.89	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 17.8¢	$72.67	$53.11	-$19.56	46% 92-106 (198)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Upavg 12.4¢	$476.91	$10.03	+$28.09	47% 1695-1948 (3643)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$92.63	$9.68	+$2.61	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$24.42	$2.24	-$18.12	49% 224-236 (460)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,803.05

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$223.75

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$562.75

Value

$663.94

PnL

+$101.18

Record

49%

938-977 (1915)

Both legs:

Down$307.1549¢+$203.82

Up$255.630.9¢-$102.63

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$538.26

Value

$499.77

PnL

+$13.64

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,760.61

Value

$498.48

PnL

-$29.02

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$217.95

Value

$308.91

PnL

+$90.96

Record

51%

415-401 (816)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$141.39

Value

$236.24

PnL

+$94.85

Record

50%

972-964 (1936)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$64.83

Value

$141.01

PnL

+$76.18

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

fiankeeCTR

Invested

$272

Value

$74.46

PnL

-$197.54

Record

55%

32-26 (58)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$64.66

Value

$60.62

PnL

+$4.89

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$72.67

Value

$53.11

PnL

-$19.56

Record

46%

92-106 (198)

rabadabadooCTR

Invested

$476.91

Value

$10.03

PnL

+$28.09

Record

47%

1695-1948 (3643)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$92.63

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$2.61

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$24.42

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$18.12

Record

49%

224-236 (460)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Down 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.