Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10AM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up28¢Down72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$31.55

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 72.5¢

+50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up28%

Down73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$832.05

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL+$49.63

Up1 trader

Total Value$44.55

Total Shares162

Combined PnL-$18.08

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$758.72	$547.86	-$64.08	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$396.84	$411.06	-$0.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$195.82	$136.8	-$63.43
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$530.34	$501.56	+$6.66	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$255.71	$359.96	+$107.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240	$141.6	-$101
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$382.36	$396.8	+$14.44	49% 932-964 (1896)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$236.11	$254.98	+$18.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$146.24	$141.82	-$4.43
AL almach	Downavg 45¢	$270	$297	+$27	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$224.9	$235.38	+$10.49	46% 1673-1927 (3600)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$115.94	$150.76	+$34.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$108.95	$84.63	-$24.32
MO mo-money	Downavg 45¢	$158.59	$174.45	+$15.86	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$120.54	$131.05	+$10.51	51% 409-398 (807)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$55.54	$80.65	+$25.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$65	$50.4	-$14.6
BO bosona	Downavg 65¢	$121.97	$119.15	-$2.81	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46¢	$110.44	$118.86	+$8.42	50% 955-949 (1904)
FI fiankee<$100	Downavg 50¢	$89.5	$88.61	-$0.89	56% 32-25 (57)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 38.7¢	$62.63	$44.55	-$18.08	45% 88-106 (194)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$19.5	$19.01	+$1.04	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$21.74	$14.96	+$1.02	54% 2675-2263 (4938)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$758.72

Value

$547.86

PnL

-$64.08

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

Both legs:

Down$396.8461.8¢-$0.65

Up$195.8251.5¢-$63.43

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$530.34

Value

$501.56

PnL

+$6.66

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$255.7150.1¢+$107.66

Up$24050¢-$101

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$382.36

Value

$396.8

PnL

+$14.44

Record

49%

932-964 (1896)

Both legs:

Down$236.1155.1¢+$18.87

Up$146.2441.8¢-$4.43

almach

Down

Invested

$270

Value

$297

PnL

+$27

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$224.9

Value

$235.38

PnL

+$10.49

Record

46%

1673-1927 (3600)

Both legs:

Down$115.9451.1¢+$34.81

Up$108.9543.1¢-$24.32

mo-money

Down

Invested

$158.59

Value

$174.45

PnL

+$15.86

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$120.54

Value

$131.05

PnL

+$10.51

Record

51%

409-398 (807)

Both legs:

Down$55.5447.2¢+$25.11

Up$6540.6¢-$14.6

bosona

Down

Invested

$121.97

Value

$119.15

PnL

-$2.81

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$110.44

Value

$118.86

PnL

+$8.42

Record

50%

955-949 (1904)

fiankee<$100

Down

Invested

$89.5

Value

$88.61

PnL

-$0.89

Record

56%

32-25 (57)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$62.63

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$18.08

Record

45%

88-106 (194)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$1.04

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$21.74

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$1.02

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.9%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.