Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9PM ET

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$548.42

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,587

Combined PnL+$564.13

Down4 traders

Total Value$268.32

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL-$15.71

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 90.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$43.27	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
BO bosona	Upavg 78.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$276.44	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
MO mo-money	Upavg 85¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$186.44	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
AL almach	Upavg 75¢	$849.15	$900.05	+$50.9	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 82.3¢	$744.45	$651.46	-$92.99	49% 886-917 (1803)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.6¢	$503.12	$544.7	+$41.58	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.6¢	$524.11	$500	-$10.6	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 61.8¢	$292.82	$469.73	+$176.92	46% 72-84 (156)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 79.2¢	$227.56	$216.59	-$10.94	47% 1551-1772 (3323)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 46¢	$125.36	$134.9	+$9.54	50% 852-864 (1716)
FI fiankeeCTR	Downavg 49.2¢	$118.4	$121.48	+$3.08	55% 28-23 (51)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$76.4	$73.37	-$3.03	51% 1968-1903 (3871)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 86¢	$61.56	$56.68	-$4.88	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 84.9¢	$90.15	$18.34	-$2.43	54% 2440-2083 (4523)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 24.6¢	$28.66	$11.66	-$17	49% 430-445 (875)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$11.61	$0.28	-$11.33	49% 212-223 (435)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,749.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$43.27

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

bosona

Invested

$1,039.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$276.44

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

mo-money

Invested

$1,104.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$186.44

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

almach

Invested

$849.15

Value

$900.05

PnL

+$50.9

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$744.45

Value

$651.46

PnL

-$92.99

Record

49%

886-917 (1803)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$503.12

Value

$544.7

PnL

+$41.58

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$524.11

Value

$500

PnL

-$10.6

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$292.82

Value

$469.73

PnL

+$176.92

Record

46%

72-84 (156)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$227.56

Value

$216.59

PnL

-$10.94

Record

47%

1551-1772 (3323)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$125.36

Value

$134.9

PnL

+$9.54

Record

50%

852-864 (1716)

fiankeeCTR

Down

Invested

$118.4

Value

$121.48

PnL

+$3.08

Record

55%

28-23 (51)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$76.4

Value

$73.37

PnL

-$3.03

Record

51%

1968-1903 (3871)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$61.56

Value

$56.68

PnL

-$4.88

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$90.15

Value

$18.34

PnL

-$2.43

Record

54%

2440-2083 (4523)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.66

Value

$11.66

PnL

-$17

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.61

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$11.33

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.