Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9AM ET

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (94%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 94%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$680.05

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 99.7¢

+34% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,671

Combined PnL+$685.65

Up1 trader

Total Value$9.2

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$5.6

Down — 94%Up — 6%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.7¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$656.9	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 78.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$31.95	49% 855-884 (1739)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.7¢	$522.94	$499.78	-$4.58	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 85.1¢	$517.92	$474.29	+$77.93	46% 56-65 (121)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 88¢	$1.6K	$353.27	-$49.06	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$309.69	$312.35	+$2.66	71% 1515-611 (2126)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 48.6¢	$201.01	$205.98	+$4.97	50% 747-748 (1495)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 94.2¢	$733.43	$192.26	+$15.21	46% 1413-1633 (3046)
MO mo-money	Downavg 69.6¢	$179.67	$184.1	+$4.42	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
AL almach	Downavg 75.8¢	$761.31	$177.64	-$81.32	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 87.7¢	$166.67	$169.31	+$2.64	50% 324-321 (645)
BO bosona	Downavg 73.4¢	$121.21	$118.01	-$3.2	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$54.63	$52.08	+$23.95	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 81¢	$16.2	$14.9	-$1.3	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$53.85	$14.26	+$4.54	54% 2215-1915 (4130)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 92¢	$12.42	$12.35	-$0.07	49% 191-196 (387)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 18.5¢	$14.8	$9.2	-$5.6	49% 417-427 (844)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,738.39

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$656.9

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$1,203.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$31.95

Record

49%

855-884 (1739)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$522.94

Value

$499.78

PnL

-$4.58

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$517.92

Value

$474.29

PnL

+$77.93

Record

46%

56-65 (121)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,565.06

Value

$353.27

PnL

-$49.06

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$309.69

Value

$312.35

PnL

+$2.66

Record

71%

1515-611 (2126)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$201.01

Value

$205.98

PnL

+$4.97

Record

50%

747-748 (1495)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$733.43

Value

$192.26

PnL

+$15.21

Record

46%

1413-1633 (3046)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$179.67

Value

$184.1

PnL

+$4.42

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

almach

Down

Invested

$761.31

Value

$177.64

PnL

-$81.32

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$166.67

Value

$169.31

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

324-321 (645)

bosona

Down

Invested

$121.21

Value

$118.01

PnL

-$3.2

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$54.63

Value

$52.08

PnL

+$23.95

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$16.2

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$1.3

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$53.85

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$4.54

Record

54%

2215-1915 (4130)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.42

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

191-196 (387)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$5.6

Record

49%

417-427 (844)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.