Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8PM ET

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (92%) · Down at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$341.84

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 99.5¢

+37% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,745

Combined PnL-$349.8

Up1 trader

Total Value$24.13

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$7.97

Down — 92%Up — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL almach	Downavg 68.5¢	$676.76	$982.49	+$305.72	51% 1479-1409 (2888)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87¢	$2.3K	$982.3	-$127.71	52% 2275-2131 (4406)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.2¢	$486.1	$615.28	+$129.18	51% 3277-3198 (6475)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.3¢	$514.87	$499.45	+$5.85	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
MO mo-money	Downavg 80.8¢	$690.16	$422.73	-$267.44	51% 1473-1419 (2892)
BO bosona	Downavg 71.7¢	$598.88	$413.6	-$185.28	51% 4729-4529 (9258)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 51¢	$214.47	$253.92	+$39.45	49% 885-915 (1800)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 90.1¢	$432.85	$169.46	+$7.81	47% 1538-1764 (3302)
FI fiankee	Downavg 50¢	$160	$158.4	-$1.6	57% 28-21 (49)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 99¢	$377.04	$119.1	-$251.48	45% 69-84 (153)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$58.53	$64.51	+$5.99	50% 370-364 (734)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$37.5	$36.5	-$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$21.03	$28.01	+$6.99
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 83.6¢	$83.8	$26.23	+$4.48	54% 2422-2063 (4485)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 91.4¢	$55.25	$25.92	-$8.79	59% 3835-2614 (6449)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 18.1¢	$16.16	$24.13	+$7.97	49% 430-443 (873)

almach

Down

Invested

$676.76

Value

$982.49

PnL

+$305.72

Record

51%

1479-1409 (2888)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,308.25

Value

$982.3

PnL

-$127.71

Record

52%

2275-2131 (4406)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$486.1

Value

$615.28

PnL

+$129.18

Record

51%

3277-3198 (6475)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$514.87

Value

$499.45

PnL

+$5.85

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$690.16

Value

$422.73

PnL

-$267.44

Record

51%

1473-1419 (2892)

bosona

Down

Invested

$598.88

Value

$413.6

PnL

-$185.28

Record

51%

4729-4529 (9258)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$214.47

Value

$253.92

PnL

+$39.45

Record

49%

885-915 (1800)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$432.85

Value

$169.46

PnL

+$7.81

Record

47%

1538-1764 (3302)

fiankee

Down

Invested

$160

Value

$158.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

57%

28-21 (49)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$377.04

Value

$119.1

PnL

-$251.48

Record

45%

69-84 (153)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$58.53

Value

$64.51

PnL

+$5.99

Record

50%

370-364 (734)

Both legs:

Invested

$83.8

Value

$26.23

PnL

+$4.48

Record

54%

2422-2063 (4485)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$55.25

Value

$25.92

PnL

-$8.79

Record

59%

3835-2614 (6449)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$24.13

PnL

+$7.97

Record

49%

430-443 (873)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.