Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8AM ET

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 76¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Up25¢Down75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 75.5¢

+35% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up25%

Down76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,182

Combined PnL+$751.07

Up2 traders

Total Value$28.22

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$765.78

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$394.84	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$785.33	$869.61	+$84.27	49% 853-882 (1735)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$630.01	$632.89	+$2.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$155.33	$236.72	+$81.4
BO bosona	Downavg 52.2¢	$452.08	$790.04	+$337.96	51% 4567-4423 (8990)
AN Anon455	Downavg 60.7¢	$527.57	$699.84	+$172.27	49% 416-426 (842)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$510.76	$500.71	+$6.51	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$360	+$110
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$242.67	$140.71	-$103.49
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$1.2K	$402.8	+$91.43	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.7¢	$101.77	$243.65	+$317.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.2¢	$186.08	$159.15	-$225.7
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 90.5¢	$461.31	$194.05	-$194.67	45% 54-65 (119)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.4¢	$197.09	$184.72	-$12.37	50% 740-741 (1481)
FI fiankee	Downavg 50¢	$165	$163.35	-$1.65	53% 23-20 (43)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45¢	$99.92	$152.08	+$52.16	50% 1805-1780 (3585)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$571.04	$119.41	+$23.61	46% 1397-1625 (3022)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.2¢	$92.1	$76.97	-$163.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.8¢	$10.25	$42.44	+$187.52
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 21.6¢	$111.71	$88.23	-$23.49	50% 323-319 (642)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.5¢	$41.74	$49.28	+$7.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.6¢	$69.97	$38.95	-$31.03
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$43.84	$43.87	+$0.03	48% 1394-1507 (2901)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 90.5¢	$47.04	$27.19	-$4.89	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 8¢	$890.33	$22.79	+$473.91	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$36.26	$15.89	+$7.39	54% 2198-1898 (4096)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 6¢	$799.47	$5.43	+$291.87	49% 1297-1335 (2632)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,313.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$394.84

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$785.33

Value

$869.61

PnL

+$84.27

Record

49%

853-882 (1735)

Both legs:

Down$630.0166.2¢+$2.88

Up$155.3322¢+$81.4

bosona

Down

Invested

$452.08

Value

$790.04

PnL

+$337.96

Record

51%

4567-4423 (8990)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$527.57

Value

$699.84

PnL

+$172.27

Record

49%

416-426 (842)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$510.76

Value

$500.71

PnL

+$6.51

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$110

Up$242.6748.3¢-$103.49

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,202.09

Value

$402.8

PnL

+$91.43

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

Both legs:

Up$101.7711.7¢+$317.12

Down$186.0884.2¢-$225.7

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$461.31

Value

$194.05

PnL

-$194.67

Record

45%

54-65 (119)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$197.09

Value

$184.72

PnL

-$12.37

Record

50%

740-741 (1481)

fiankee

Down

Invested

$165

Value

$163.35

PnL

-$1.65

Record

53%

23-20 (43)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$99.92

Value

$152.08

PnL

+$52.16

Record

50%

1805-1780 (3585)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$571.04

Value

$119.41

PnL

+$23.61

Record

46%

1397-1625 (3022)

Both legs:

Down$92.186.2¢-$163.91

Up$10.256.8¢+$187.52

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$111.71

Value

$88.23

PnL

-$23.49

Record

50%

323-319 (642)

Both legs:

Down$41.7474.5¢+$7.54

Up$69.9721.6¢-$31.03

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$43.84

Value

$43.87

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$47.04

Value

$27.19

PnL

-$4.89

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

almachCTR

Invested

$890.33

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$473.91

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$36.26

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$7.39

Record

54%

2198-1898 (4096)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$799.47

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$291.87

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.