Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7PM ET

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up11¢Down89¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$94.61

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 89.5¢

+54% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up11%

Down90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,791

Combined PnL+$294.74

Up3 traders

Total Value$238

Total Shares791

Combined PnL-$200.14

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.5¢	$864	$1.1K	+$282.93	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.5¢	$697.9	$660.37	+$3.28	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 45.2¢	$447.65	$527.69	+$80.05	49% 883-907 (1790)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.4¢	$533.61	$510.67	-$6.98	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
MO mo-money	Downavg 71.2¢	$252.23	$253.21	+$0.97	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
AN Anon455	Downavg 58.5¢	$233	$240.97	+$7.97	49% 429-439 (868)
AL almach	Downavg 68.4¢	$178.03	$219.82	+$41.79	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 51¢	$165.73	$160.86	-$4.87	50% 832-828 (1660)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 85.9¢	$447.24	$138.89	+$10.01	47% 1521-1740 (3261)
BO bosona	Downavg 56.6¢	$372.22	$131.55	-$122.27	51% 4704-4511 (9215)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 49.5¢	$231.63	$91.26	-$140.37	47% 69-77 (146)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$85.74	$88.37	+$2.63	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 50.7¢	$120.77	$58.37	-$62.4	50% 363-357 (720)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$26.92	$23.41	+$0.31	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$40.51	$4.13	+$1.56	54% 2390-2039 (4429)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$864

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$282.93

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$697.9

Value

$660.37

PnL

+$3.28

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$447.65

Value

$527.69

PnL

+$80.05

Record

49%

883-907 (1790)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$533.61

Value

$510.67

PnL

-$6.98

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$252.23

Value

$253.21

PnL

+$0.97

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$233

Value

$240.97

PnL

+$7.97

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

almach

Down

Invested

$178.03

Value

$219.82

PnL

+$41.79

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$165.73

Value

$160.86

PnL

-$4.87

Record

50%

832-828 (1660)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$447.24

Value

$138.89

PnL

+$10.01

Record

47%

1521-1740 (3261)

bosona

Down

Invested

$372.22

Value

$131.55

PnL

-$122.27

Record

51%

4704-4511 (9215)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$231.63

Value

$91.26

PnL

-$140.37

Record

47%

69-77 (146)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$85.74

Value

$88.37

PnL

+$2.63

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$120.77

Value

$58.37

PnL

-$62.4

Record

50%

363-357 (720)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$26.92

Value

$23.41

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$40.51

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$1.56

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.