Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7AM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$143.43

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 97.3¢

+32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,121

Combined PnL+$196.12

Up1 trader

Total Value$31.05

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$52.68

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$148.97	51% 2975-2913 (5888)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 75.8¢	$515.94	$516.62	+$0.68	49% 851-879 (1730)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$523.09	$500	-$6.8	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.2¢	$255.77	$292.5	+$39.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$247.2	$207.5	-$46.1
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.3¢	$463.55	$494.49	+$32.04	52% 2078-1939 (4017)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$114.97	$133.94	+$18.98	50% 321-319 (640)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$95.37	$98.25	+$2.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.8¢	$19.6	$35.69	+$16.09
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 84¢	$586.23	$113.05	+$11.85	46% 1383-1617 (3000)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88¢	$59.11	$34.61	-$7.92	60% 3496-2347 (5843)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 18.7¢	$91.77	$31.05	-$52.68	44% 52-65 (117)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 62¢	$32.41	$24.78	+$10.52	54% 2187-1881 (4068)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 83¢	$6.14	$6.25	+$0.11	49% 416-425 (841)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$4.5	$4.37	-$0.13	50% 734-736 (1470)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,710.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$148.97

Record

51%

2975-2913 (5888)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$515.94

Value

$516.62

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

851-879 (1730)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$523.09

Value

$500

PnL

-$6.8

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

Both legs:

Down$255.7751.2¢+$39.3

Up$247.249.4¢-$46.1

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$463.55

Value

$494.49

PnL

+$32.04

Record

52%

2078-1939 (4017)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.97

Value

$133.94

PnL

+$18.98

Record

50%

321-319 (640)

Both legs:

Down$95.3756.8¢+$2.89

Up$19.622.8¢+$16.09

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$586.23

Value

$113.05

PnL

+$11.85

Record

46%

1383-1617 (3000)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$59.11

Value

$34.61

PnL

-$7.92

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$91.77

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$52.68

Record

44%

52-65 (117)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$32.41

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$10.52

Record

54%

2187-1881 (4068)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

416-425 (841)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

734-736 (1470)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.