Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6AM ET

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up26¢Down74¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$110.11

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 74.5¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up26%

Down75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,071

Combined PnL+$110.11

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$519.32	$501.65	+$4.76	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$252.31	$342.5	+$94.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$244.92	$159.15	-$89.94
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$235.38	$298.17	+$62.78	49% 849-874 (1723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$159.38	$205.56	+$46.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$76	$92.61	+$16.61
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.3¢	$297.65	$237.54	+$31.56	52% 2057-1924 (3981)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$395.26	$171.18	+$7.53	46% 1371-1603 (2974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$109.58	$130.28	-$10.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$51.28	$40.9	+$17.94
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 42.7¢	$133.32	$130.38	+$99.36	44% 51-64 (115)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$78.71	$84.71	+$6	50% 320-317 (637)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$53.71	$48.46	-$5.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$25	$36.25	+$11.25
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$55	$46.95	+$1.81	60% 3476-2322 (5798)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$24	$23.82	-$0.18	49% 416-425 (841)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59¢	$18.6	$18.07	+$6.46	54% 2171-1861 (4032)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 82¢	$23.84	$11.99	-$7.89	49% 189-193 (382)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,316.45

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$21

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$519.32

Value

$501.65

PnL

+$4.76

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Down$252.3150.5¢+$94.7

Up$244.9248.5¢-$89.94

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.38

Value

$298.17

PnL

+$62.78

Record

49%

849-874 (1723)

Both legs:

Down$159.3854.7¢+$46.18

Up$7624.2¢+$16.61

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$297.65

Value

$237.54

PnL

+$31.56

Record

52%

2057-1924 (3981)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$395.26

Value

$171.18

PnL

+$7.53

Record

46%

1371-1603 (2974)

Both legs:

Down$109.5866¢-$10.41

Up$51.2827¢+$17.94

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$133.32

Value

$130.38

PnL

+$99.36

Record

44%

51-64 (115)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$78.71

Value

$84.71

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

320-317 (637)

Both legs:

Invested

$55

Value

$46.95

PnL

+$1.81

Record

60%

3476-2322 (5798)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$24

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

416-425 (841)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$6.46

Record

54%

2171-1861 (4032)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$23.84

Value

$11.99

PnL

-$7.89

Record

49%

189-193 (382)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.8%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.