Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5PM ET

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 99.4¢

+60% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,520

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up2 traders

Total Value$189.56

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL-$54.1

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mo-money	Downavg 82.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$231.21	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
BO bosona	Downavg 72¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$391.45	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.6¢	$929.58	$1.1K	+$389.73	51% 3214-3142 (6356)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 43.7¢	$884.29	$1.0K	+$117.39	50% 823-817 (1640)
AL almach	Downavg 64.4¢	$880.1	$898.37	+$456.57	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 57.6¢	$692.28	$850.76	+$158.48	49% 878-905 (1783)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 49.8¢	$513.46	$490.16	+$12.77	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 86.4¢	$3.0K	$229.46	-$78.44	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 81.9¢	$493.99	$130.39	+$4.26	47% 1504-1730 (3234)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 13.7¢	$105.21	$103.85	-$1.36	49% 427-437 (864)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 38.8¢	$138.46	$85.72	-$52.74	48% 68-74 (142)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 82¢	$57.77	$53.84	-$3.12	59% 3751-2555 (6306)
FI fiankee<$100	Downavg 50¢	$50	$49.5	-$0.5	55% 26-21 (47)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$36.32	$36.01	-$0.31	51% 359-351 (710)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 91¢	$255.69	$9.77	+$0.31	54% 2366-2025 (4391)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 43¢	$6.45	$7.43	+$0.98	49% 1554-1593 (3147)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,258.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$231.21

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,096.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$391.45

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$929.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$389.73

Record

51%

3214-3142 (6356)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$884.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$117.39

Record

50%

823-817 (1640)

almach

Down

Invested

$880.1

Value

$898.37

PnL

+$456.57

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$692.28

Value

$850.76

PnL

+$158.48

Record

49%

878-905 (1783)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$513.46

Value

$490.16

PnL

+$12.77

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$3,012.29

Value

$229.46

PnL

-$78.44

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$493.99

Value

$130.39

PnL

+$4.26

Record

47%

1504-1730 (3234)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$105.21

Value

$103.85

PnL

-$1.36

Record

49%

427-437 (864)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$138.46

Value

$85.72

PnL

-$52.74

Record

48%

68-74 (142)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$57.77

Value

$53.84

PnL

-$3.12

Record

59%

3751-2555 (6306)

fiankee<$100

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

55%

26-21 (47)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$36.32

Value

$36.01

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

359-351 (710)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$255.69

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

2366-2025 (4391)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$0.98

Record

49%

1554-1593 (3147)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.