Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5AM ET

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$124.29

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 96.5¢

+29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,839

Combined PnL+$117.6

Up5 traders

Total Value$83

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$6.69

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 69.8¢	$989.54	$1.1K	+$125.29	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$521.98	$500.42	-$1.61	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$256.6	$397.92	+$145.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$102.5	-$147.5
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 91.8¢	$298.21	$204.19	-$94.02	49% 847-871 (1718)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.7¢	$358.42	$169.06	+$28.23	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 82¢	$378.6	$144.61	-$3.62	46% 1358-1593 (2951)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 83¢	$112.34	$111.62	-$0.72	51% 320-313 (633)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$38.15	$41.88	+$3.73	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 94¢	$76.57	$22.48	-$17.23	46% 2546-3015 (5561)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 28.6¢	$19.39	$20.87	+$1.48	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$56.7	$19.53	+$4.1	54% 2156-1847 (4003)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$13.92	$15.28	+$1.36	50% 719-722 (1441)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 58.8¢	$132.64	$14.06	+$82.73	43% 48-63 (111)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 82¢	$23.61	$11.6	-$7.15	50% 189-191 (380)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$4.05	$4.1	+$0.04	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$0.8	$0.88	+$0.07	48% 1372-1476 (2848)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$989.54

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$125.29

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$521.98

Value

$500.42

PnL

-$1.61

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Both legs:

Down$256.651.3¢+$145.89

Up$25050¢-$147.5

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$298.21

Value

$204.19

PnL

-$94.02

Record

49%

847-871 (1718)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$358.42

Value

$169.06

PnL

+$28.23

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$378.6

Value

$144.61

PnL

-$3.62

Record

46%

1358-1593 (2951)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$112.34

Value

$111.62

PnL

-$0.72

Record

51%

320-313 (633)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$38.15

Value

$41.88

PnL

+$3.73

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

suntori<$100

Down

Invested

$76.57

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$17.23

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$19.39

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$1.48

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$56.7

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$4.1

Record

54%

2156-1847 (4003)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$13.92

Value

$15.28

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

719-722 (1441)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$132.64

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$82.73

Record

43%

48-63 (111)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$23.61

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$7.15

Record

50%

189-191 (380)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1372-1476 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.