Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (57%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4PM ET

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (73%) · Down at 43¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Up57¢Down43¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$263.98

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 43¢

-19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Up 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up57%

Down43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,222

Combined PnL+$395.19

Up4 traders

Total Value$854.62

Total Shares1,398

Combined PnL-$131.21

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$4.5K	$4.0K	-$465.46	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$257.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$2.4K	$1.7K	-$723.06
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$875.25	$903.9	+$28.65	49% 878-901 (1779)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$500.76	$687.15	+$186.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$374.49	$216.75	-$157.74
AL almachCTR	Downavg 64.3¢	$630.26	$759.54	+$129.28	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 60¢	$636.28	$737.2	+$100.93	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 38.3¢	$2.0K	$590.62	-$36.07	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 41.3¢	$547.08	$563	+$15.92	50% 817-809 (1626)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 59.8¢	$403.78	$523.27	+$119.5	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$516.55	$500	+$1.4	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$248.8	$340	+$92.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$247.88	$160	-$91.4
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$419.16	$380.84	-$38.32	51% 355-347 (702)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$334.58	$220.44	-$114.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$84.58	$160.4	+$75.82
FI fiankeeCTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$339.28	$304.09	-$5.48	57% 26-20 (46)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 61.3¢	$290.75	$177.84	-$111.82	47% 66-74 (140)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 40¢	$127.2	$157.41	+$30.21	51% 1914-1874 (3788)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 59.6¢	$1.0K	$60.81	+$4.69	47% 1495-1717 (3212)
AA aaa221CTR	Downavg 54.6¢	$145.76	$44.53	+$9.27	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 42.1¢	$29.5	$29.75	+$0.25	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 34¢	$13.36	$25.34	+$11.98	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 45.4¢	$106.76	$24.87	-$1.57	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 39.4¢	$24.28	$21.24	-$3.05	50% 427-435 (862)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 73¢	$11.68	$11.6	-$0.08	48% 204-219 (423)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,509.39

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$465.46

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Both legs:

Up$2,096.5650.4¢+$257.61

Down$2,401.5662.2¢-$723.06

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$875.25

Value

$903.9

PnL

+$28.65

Record

49%

878-901 (1779)

Both legs:

Up$500.7651.4¢+$186.39

Down$374.4951¢-$157.74

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$630.26

Value

$759.54

PnL

+$129.28

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$636.28

Value

$737.2

PnL

+$100.93

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$2,025.15

Value

$590.62

PnL

-$36.07

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$547.08

Value

$563

PnL

+$15.92

Record

50%

817-809 (1626)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$403.78

Value

$523.27

PnL

+$119.5

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$516.55

Value

$500

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$248.849.8¢+$92.8

Down$247.8849.6¢-$91.4

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$419.16

Value

$380.84

PnL

-$38.32

Record

51%

355-347 (702)

Both legs:

Down$334.5855.4¢-$114.14

Up$84.5833.5¢+$75.82

fiankeeCTR

Down

Invested

$339.28

Value

$304.09

PnL

-$5.48

Record

57%

26-20 (46)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$290.75

Value

$177.84

PnL

-$111.82

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$127.2

Value

$157.41

PnL

+$30.21

Record

51%

1914-1874 (3788)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$1,049.05

Value

$60.81

PnL

+$4.69

Record

47%

1495-1717 (3212)

aaa221CTR

Down

Invested

$145.76

Value

$44.53

PnL

+$9.27

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.5

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

suntori<$100

Invested

$13.36

Value

$25.34

PnL

+$11.98

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$106.76

Value

$24.87

PnL

-$1.57

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.28

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$3.05

Record

50%

427-435 (862)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.68

Value

$11.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Up 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.