Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 4AM ET

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (46%) · Up at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 46%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$186.69

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 98.7¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,313

Combined PnL+$156.15

Down7 traders

Total Value$225.62

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL-$342.83

Up — 46%Down — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$99.52	51% 2935-2874 (5809)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$507.2	$500	-$1.2	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 84.7¢	$1.1K	$300.65	+$3.46	52% 2043-1911 (3954)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 69.4¢	$105.04	$143.81	+$38.78	51% 320-313 (633)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 46¢	$285.28	$124.89	-$158.22	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 85.5¢	$353.4	$104.97	+$7.84	46% 1358-1593 (2951)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR	Downavg 41.5¢	$182.07	$72.84	-$109.23	49% 847-871 (1718)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 58¢	$12.15	$19.9	+$7.75	50% 189-191 (380)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 4.9¢	$82.8	$9.1	+$37.41	43% 48-63 (111)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 31.1¢	$20.6	$7.95	-$12.64	60% 3454-2312 (5766)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$67.44	$7.85	-$59.59	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$34.65	$2.21	-$32.44	50% 719-722 (1441)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 37.2¢	$18.9	$0.78	-$8.12	54% 2156-1847 (4003)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,138.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$99.52

Record

51%

2935-2874 (5809)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$507.2

Value

$500

PnL

-$1.2

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,136.77

Value

$300.65

PnL

+$3.46

Record

52%

2043-1911 (3954)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$105.04

Value

$143.81

PnL

+$38.78

Record

51%

320-313 (633)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$285.28

Value

$124.89

PnL

-$158.22

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$353.4

Value

$104.97

PnL

+$7.84

Record

46%

1358-1593 (2951)

peepeepoopoo24CTR

Down

Invested

$182.07

Value

$72.84

PnL

-$109.23

Record

49%

847-871 (1718)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$7.75

Record

50%

189-191 (380)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.8

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$37.41

Record

43%

48-63 (111)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.6

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$12.64

Record

60%

3454-2312 (5766)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$67.44

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$59.59

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.65

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$32.44

Record

50%

719-722 (1441)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.9

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$8.12

Record

54%

2156-1847 (4003)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.