Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up29¢Down71¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$10.84

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 71¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up29%

Down71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,439

Combined PnL+$64.17

Up4 traders

Total Value$180.57

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$53.34

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67.3¢	$865.36	$881.04	+$15.67	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$498.59	+$0.15	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$382.5	+$132.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247	$116.09	-$132.35
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 35.9¢	$276.59	$449.54	+$181.45	49% 875-899 (1774)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.9¢	$157.86	$316.36	+$163.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$115.14	$133.18	+$18.03
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$193.05	$204.4	+$13.36	47% 1485-1706 (3191)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$105.96	$142.02	+$36.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$83.35	$62.38	-$22.71
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 25.2¢	$324.66	$170.03	+$30.17	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.2¢	$88.28	$98.03	+$31.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$62.54	$72	-$1.77
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Upavg 44¢	$155.98	$169.68	+$13.69	50% 812-804 (1616)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$88	$101	+$13
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$67.98	$68.68	+$0.69
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 40.7¢	$190.26	$147.42	-$42.84	47% 65-73 (138)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 35¢	$49.25	$92.92	+$43.67	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 77¢	$116.65	$18.07	+$1.88	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$28.5	$17.5	-$11	51% 352-342 (694)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$12.86	$15.98	+$3.12	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$12.26	$12.11	-$0.15	48% 204-219 (423)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$10.8	$10.6	-$0.2	50% 426-434 (860)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$4.35	$5.05	+$0.7	49% 1530-1579 (3109)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 33¢	$1.78	$1.75	-$0.03	51% 4658-4490 (9148)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$865.36

Value

$881.04

PnL

+$15.67

Record

51%

3173-3101 (6274)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$498.59

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$132.5

Up$24750¢-$132.35

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$276.59

Value

$449.54

PnL

+$181.45

Record

49%

875-899 (1774)

Both legs:

Down$157.8635.9¢+$163.42

Up$115.1424.2¢+$18.03

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.05

Value

$204.4

PnL

+$13.36

Record

47%

1485-1706 (3191)

Both legs:

Down$105.9653.7¢+$36.06

Up$83.3537.4¢-$22.71

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$324.66

Value

$170.03

PnL

+$30.17

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

Both legs:

Up$88.2825.2¢+$31.95

Down$62.5462.5¢-$1.77

PBot-6ARB<$100

Invested

$155.98

Value

$169.68

PnL

+$13.69

Record

50%

812-804 (1616)

Both legs:

Up$8844¢+$13

Down$67.9849¢+$0.69

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$190.26

Value

$147.42

PnL

-$42.84

Record

47%

65-73 (138)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$49.25

Value

$92.92

PnL

+$43.67

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$116.65

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$11

Record

51%

352-342 (694)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.86

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$3.12

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.26

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

426-434 (860)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.7

Record

49%

1530-1579 (3109)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.