Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 3AM ET

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up26¢Down74¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$197.74

Smart Money Entry

34.7¢ → 74.5¢

+115% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up26%

Down75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$290.2

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$178.64

Up3 traders

Total Value$53.43

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$19.1

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$44.56	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$643.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$1.3K	$635.01	-$688.29
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$512.54	$495.5	+$4.66	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$244.4	$251.54	+$9.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$249.7	$243.95	-$4.69
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 40.6¢	$319.43	$406.88	+$87.45	49% 841-865 (1706)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$173.35	$317.97	+$144.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$146.08	$88.91	-$57.17
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 37¢	$393.8	$238.59	+$170.7	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$219.5	$208.63	-$10.87	50% 313-311 (624)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.7¢	$169.07	$134.93	-$34.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$50.43	$73.7	+$23.27
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$535.91	$95.37	+$9.14	46% 1332-1572 (2904)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$53.33	$63.26	+$48.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$33.74	$32.11	-$39.63
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$69.94	$42.68	-$1.39	60% 3392-2277 (5669)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$24.93	$24.9	+$6.5	54% 2121-1818 (3939)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 22¢	$17.33	$17.72	+$0.39	50% 1264-1258 (2522)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$11.59	$9.22	-$2.38	50% 189-191 (380)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 31.3¢	$7.94	$8.99	+$1.05	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$84.24	$1.53	+$22.86	43% 46-61 (107)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,853.31

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$44.56

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Both legs:

Down$1,518.2752.4¢+$643.73

Up$1,323.353.1¢-$688.29

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$512.54

Value

$495.5

PnL

+$4.66

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

Both legs:

Down$244.450¢+$9.34

Up$249.749.6¢-$4.69

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$319.43

Value

$406.88

PnL

+$87.45

Record

49%

841-865 (1706)

Both legs:

Down$173.3540.6¢+$144.62

Up$146.0841.9¢-$57.17

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$393.8

Value

$238.59

PnL

+$170.7

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$219.5

Value

$208.63

PnL

-$10.87

Record

50%

313-311 (624)

Both legs:

Up$169.0745.7¢-$34.14

Down$50.4343.4¢+$23.27

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$535.91

Value

$95.37

PnL

+$9.14

Record

46%

1332-1572 (2904)

Both legs:

Down$53.3362.8¢+$48.77

Up$33.7426.8¢-$39.63

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$69.94

Value

$42.68

PnL

-$1.39

Record

60%

3392-2277 (5669)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$24.93

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$6.5

Record

54%

2121-1818 (3939)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$17.33

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

1264-1258 (2522)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.59

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

189-191 (380)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$7.94

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

1252-1281 (2533)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$84.24

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$22.86

Record

43%

46-61 (107)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 7 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.8%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.