Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (75%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2PM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 26¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Up75¢Down25¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$195.44

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 25.5¢

-28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up75%

Down26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$521.75

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL+$15.64

Up2 traders

Total Value$176.46

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$179.8

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$72.27	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$496.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$1.5K	$957.6	-$568.88
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$507.98	$497.63	+$3.03	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$262.5	+$12.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$245.58	$235.13	-$9.47
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$528.98	$490	-$38.98	49% 875-893 (1768)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$252.87	$332.97	+$80.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$276.11	$157.03	-$119.08
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$374.84	$225.62	+$12.3	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$125.75	$116.87	+$4.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.3¢	$91.99	$108.75	+$7.54
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 36.5¢	$163.58	$177.19	+$13.61	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 44.4¢	$207.65	$123.93	+$185.57	47% 64-72 (136)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$99.3	$96.51	-$2.79	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$75.4	$93.31	+$17.91	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$73.05	$74.49	+$1.44	51% 347-340 (687)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$49.55	$54.24	+$4.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$23.5	$20.25	-$3.25
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$88.19	$71.39	-$16.8	50% 426-432 (858)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$77.47	$52.53	-$5.77	59% 3675-2516 (6191)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 26.2¢	$645	$46.52	+$6.34	47% 1475-1689 (3164)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 37.9¢	$43.34	$27.78	-$3.04	54% 2316-1981 (4297)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$7.29	$7.68	+$0.39	50% 805-795 (1600)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.38	+$0.02	49% 1520-1565 (3085)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$3,567.22

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$72.27

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

Both legs:

Up$2,040.7458.3¢+$496.61

Down$1,526.4843.8¢-$568.88

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.98

Value

$497.63

PnL

+$3.03

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$12.5

Down$245.5849.6¢-$9.47

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$528.98

Value

$490

PnL

-$38.98

Record

49%

875-893 (1768)

Both legs:

Up$252.8757.3¢+$80.1

Down$276.1143.1¢-$119.08

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.84

Value

$225.62

PnL

+$12.3

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

Both legs:

Down$125.7529.6¢+$4.76

Up$91.9961.3¢+$7.54

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$163.58

Value

$177.19

PnL

+$13.61

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$207.65

Value

$123.93

PnL

+$185.57

Record

47%

64-72 (136)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$99.3

Value

$96.51

PnL

-$2.79

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.4

Value

$93.31

PnL

+$17.91

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$73.05

Value

$74.49

PnL

+$1.44

Record

51%

347-340 (687)

Both legs:

Invested

$88.19

Value

$71.39

PnL

-$16.8

Record

50%

426-432 (858)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$77.47

Value

$52.53

PnL

-$5.77

Record

59%

3675-2516 (6191)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$645

Value

$46.52

PnL

+$6.34

Record

47%

1475-1689 (3164)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.34

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$3.04

Record

54%

2316-1981 (4297)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

805-795 (1600)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

1520-1565 (3085)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 75%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.9%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$258.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

358.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.