Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2AM ET

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$612.23

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 99.4¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,363

Combined PnL-$208.7

Up6 traders

Total Value$516.15

Total Shares1,700

Combined PnL-$403.54

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$54.53	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$524.44	$492.13	-$6.07	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 76.3¢	$487.93	$332.4	-$155.53	49% 841-865 (1706)
BO bosona	Downavg 98.1¢	$287.33	$153.89	-$133.43	51% 4508-4382 (8890)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 92.6¢	$973.74	$152.28	-$17.87	51% 2002-1886 (3888)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$68.57	$89.29	+$20.72	50% 313-311 (624)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 67.6¢	$300	$71.39	+$12.21	46% 1332-1572 (2904)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$51.65	$38.81	+$0.24	60% 3392-2277 (5669)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 55¢	$21.1	$9.7	+$7.8	54% 2121-1818 (3939)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$140.81	$9.01	-$131.8	50% 1717-1721 (3438)
FI fiankeeCTR	Upavg 49.6¢	$128.24	$7.75	-$120.49	55% 23-19 (42)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 52¢	$3.19	$5.82	+$2.64	50% 702-708 (1410)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 18.4¢	$87.18	$2.84	-$84.34	43% 46-61 (107)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$44.74	$2.71	-$42.03	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$20.52	$1.71	-$18.81	50% 1264-1258 (2522)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,476.06

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$54.53

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$524.44

Value

$492.13

PnL

-$6.07

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$487.93

Value

$332.4

PnL

-$155.53

Record

49%

841-865 (1706)

bosona

Down

Invested

$287.33

Value

$153.89

PnL

-$133.43

Record

51%

4508-4382 (8890)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$973.74

Value

$152.28

PnL

-$17.87

Record

51%

2002-1886 (3888)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$68.57

Value

$89.29

PnL

+$20.72

Record

50%

313-311 (624)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$300

Value

$71.39

PnL

+$12.21

Record

46%

1332-1572 (2904)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$51.65

Value

$38.81

PnL

+$0.24

Record

60%

3392-2277 (5669)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$21.1

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

2121-1818 (3939)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$140.81

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$131.8

Record

50%

1717-1721 (3438)

fiankeeCTR

Invested

$128.24

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$120.49

Record

55%

23-19 (42)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$3.19

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

702-708 (1410)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$87.18

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$84.34

Record

43%

46-61 (107)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$44.74

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$42.03

Record

49%

1252-1281 (2533)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$20.52

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$18.81

Record

50%

1264-1258 (2522)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Up 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.