Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1PM ET

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Up1¢Down99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 98.9¢

+61% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,042

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$36.38	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 58.8¢	$905.83	$1.1K	+$376.19	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 58.4¢	$957.58	$1.1K	+$142.43	49% 870-892 (1762)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.2¢	$530.89	$499.11	+$17.3	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
FI fiankee	Downavg 48.4¢	$208.26	$421.89	+$213.63	56% 25-20 (45)
BO bosona	Downavg 59.5¢	$246.59	$392.52	+$145.93	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
AL almach	Downavg 56.6¢	$233.56	$374.31	+$140.75	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
MO mo-money	Downavg 53¢	$213.27	$361.05	+$147.78	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 48.9¢	$243.89	$253.6	+$9.72	51% 344-337 (681)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$135.15	$160.36	+$25.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$108.74	$93.24	-$15.5
AN Anon455	Downavg 49.4¢	$140.85	$209.78	+$68.93	49% 422-431 (853)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 91.6¢	$289.18	$162.5	+$21.82	47% 61-70 (131)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 83.4¢	$621.71	$159.84	+$9.31	46% 1461-1683 (3144)
AA aaa221	Downavg 59.9¢	$124.53	$73.66	-$4.21	59% 3649-2497 (6146)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 64.8¢	$119.74	$44.94	+$4.65	54% 2295-1973 (4268)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$2,009.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$36.38

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$905.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$376.19

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$957.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$142.43

Record

49%

870-892 (1762)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$530.89

Value

$499.11

PnL

+$17.3

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

fiankee

Down

Invested

$208.26

Value

$421.89

PnL

+$213.63

Record

56%

25-20 (45)

bosona

Down

Invested

$246.59

Value

$392.52

PnL

+$145.93

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

almach

Down

Invested

$233.56

Value

$374.31

PnL

+$140.75

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$213.27

Value

$361.05

PnL

+$147.78

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$243.89

Value

$253.6

PnL

+$9.72

Record

51%

344-337 (681)

Both legs:

Up$135.1548.9¢+$25.22

Down$108.7449¢-$15.5

Anon455

Down

Invested

$140.85

Value

$209.78

PnL

+$68.93

Record

49%

422-431 (853)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$289.18

Value

$162.5

PnL

+$21.82

Record

47%

61-70 (131)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$621.71

Value

$159.84

PnL

+$9.31

Record

46%

1461-1683 (3144)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$124.53

Value

$73.66

PnL

-$4.21

Record

59%

3649-2497 (6146)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$119.74

Value

$44.94

PnL

+$4.65

Record

54%

2295-1973 (4268)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 13 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.