Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (82%) · Up at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up92¢Down8¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$305.14

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 91.5¢

+43% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up92%

Down9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,962

Combined PnL+$316.22

Down2 traders

Total Value$82.84

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$11.08

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.23	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.7¢	$533.9	$498.05	+$1.75	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 58.8¢	$299.15	$386.6	+$87.45	49% 836-858 (1694)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 50.4¢	$235.98	$244.87	+$197.16	42% 42-58 (100)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 75.7¢	$400.83	$178.35	+$10.05	46% 1316-1543 (2859)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.2¢	$600.29	$168.08	+$12.7	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 72.4¢	$98.21	$103.41	+$5.2	50% 306-309 (615)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 19¢	$404.69	$102.94	+$150.72	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$36.18	$60.68	+$34.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 19¢	$41.19	$42.27	+$116.45
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$72.42	$70.29	-$2.13	50% 689-693 (1382)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70¢	$28.78	$18.85	-$0.12	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48¢	$15.29	$16.09	+$0.8	50% 1684-1697 (3381)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 30.3¢	$21.5	$12.55	-$8.95	54% 2087-1785 (3872)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,288.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.23

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$533.9

Value

$498.05

PnL

+$1.75

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$299.15

Value

$386.6

PnL

+$87.45

Record

49%

836-858 (1694)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$235.98

Value

$244.87

PnL

+$197.16

Record

42%

42-58 (100)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$400.83

Value

$178.35

PnL

+$10.05

Record

46%

1316-1543 (2859)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$600.29

Value

$168.08

PnL

+$12.7

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$98.21

Value

$103.41

PnL

+$5.2

Record

50%

306-309 (615)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$404.69

Value

$102.94

PnL

+$150.72

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

Both legs:

Up$36.1848¢+$34.27

Down$41.1919¢+$116.45

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.42

Value

$70.29

PnL

-$2.13

Record

50%

689-693 (1382)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

$18.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

1684-1697 (3381)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.5

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$8.95

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.0%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.