Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12AM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 79¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Up22¢Down78¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$688.49

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 78.5¢

+66% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up22%

Down79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,150

Combined PnL+$756.37

Up1 trader

Total Value$91.26

Total Shares468

Combined PnL-$67.88

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 53.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$65.65	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 52.5¢	$488.32	$660.49	+$174.77	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$445.37	$554.29	+$108.92	49% 836-858 (1694)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$301.36	$439.47	+$138.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$144.01	$114.81	-$29.19
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$508.6	$506.62	+$10.42	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$257.09	$372.22	+$114.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240	$134.4	-$104.2
AL almach	Downavg 32¢	$160	$360	+$200	50% 1236-1242 (2478)
BO bosona	Downavg 40.3¢	$157.01	$280.61	+$123.6	51% 4479-4365 (8844)
MO mo-money	Downavg 30¢	$102.88	$246.78	+$143.9	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49¢	$62.61	$91.99	+$29.39	50% 689-693 (1382)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 34¢	$159.14	$91.26	-$67.88	42% 42-58 (100)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 76.8¢	$677.17	$90.57	+$6.05	46% 1316-1543 (2859)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.8¢	$63.39	$67.24	-$6.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.8¢	$32.54	$23.34	+$12.94
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$70.5	$64	-$6.5	50% 306-309 (615)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$18.5	$36	+$17.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$52	$28	-$24
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$37.19	$35.94	+$14.42	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$59.25	$15.1	+$4.65	54% 2087-1785 (3872)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,671.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$65.65

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$488.32

Value

$660.49

PnL

+$174.77

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$445.37

Value

$554.29

PnL

+$108.92

Record

49%

836-858 (1694)

Both legs:

Down$301.3650.7¢+$138.11

Up$144.0132.6¢-$29.19

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$508.6

Value

$506.62

PnL

+$10.42

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Down$257.0949.7¢+$114.62

Up$24050¢-$104.2

almach

Down

Invested

$160

Value

$360

PnL

+$200

Record

50%

1236-1242 (2478)

bosona

Down

Invested

$157.01

Value

$280.61

PnL

+$123.6

Record

51%

4479-4365 (8844)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$102.88

Value

$246.78

PnL

+$143.9

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$62.61

Value

$91.99

PnL

+$29.39

Record

50%

689-693 (1382)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$159.14

Value

$91.26

PnL

-$67.88

Record

42%

42-58 (100)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$677.17

Value

$90.57

PnL

+$6.05

Record

46%

1316-1543 (2859)

Both legs:

Down$63.3976.8¢-$6.89

Up$32.5425.8¢+$12.94

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Invested

$70.5

Value

$64

PnL

-$6.5

Record

50%

306-309 (615)

Both legs:

Invested

$37.19

Value

$35.94

PnL

+$14.42

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$59.25

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$4.65

Record

54%

2087-1785 (3872)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.6%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.