Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11PM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Up44¢Down56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$60.02

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 56.5¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up44%

Down56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$146.7

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$38.59

Up2 traders

Total Value$114.57

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$21.43

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$497.1	+$0.85	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.5	$287.1	+$40.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$210	-$40
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$178.85	$184.98	+$6.13	47% 1576-1791 (3367)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$101.96	$96.48	-$5.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$76.89	$88.5	+$11.61
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$483.68	$175.69	-$38.5	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$96.48	$96.11	-$4.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$92.96	$79.58	-$34.04
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$173.29	$174.44	+$1.15	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$94.13	$116.13	+$22
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$79.16	$58.3	-$20.86
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 39.1¢	$84.72	$122.55	+$37.83	49% 890-922 (1812)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 51.3¢	$85.72	$106.05	+$20.33	44% 72-92 (164)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$84.17	$15.45	+$0.86	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.7	-$0.1	50% 381-378 (759)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$18.08	$8.53	+$1.11	60% 3927-2670 (6597)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$497.1

PnL

+$0.85

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$247.550¢+$40.85

Down$25050¢-$40

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$178.85

Value

$184.98

PnL

+$6.13

Record

47%

1576-1791 (3367)

Both legs:

Up$101.9652.3¢-$5.48

Down$76.8943.9¢+$11.61

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$483.68

Value

$175.69

PnL

-$38.5

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

Both legs:

Down$96.4851.7¢-$4.46

Up$92.9656.7¢-$34.04

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$173.29

Value

$174.44

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Both legs:

Invested

$84.72

Value

$122.55

PnL

+$37.83

Record

49%

890-922 (1812)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$85.72

Value

$106.05

PnL

+$20.33

Record

44%

72-92 (164)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$84.17

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$0.86

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

381-378 (759)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$18.08

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$1.11

Record

60%

3927-2670 (6597)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.