Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (71%) · Up at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Up83¢Down17¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$161.56

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 83¢

+26% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up83%

Down17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,217

Combined PnL-$146.03

Down4 traders

Total Value$93.76

Total Shares196

Combined PnL-$15.53

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 57.8¢	$476.57	$615.32	+$138.75	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 55.4¢	$480.57	$569.34	+$88.76	49% 888-918 (1806)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 76.5¢	$1.8K	$497.51	-$131.62	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$501.25	$497.02	+$4.46	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$251.25	$250.08	-$1.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$244.5	$246.95	+$5.63
AL almach	Upavg 74.7¢	$335.05	$347.5	+$12.45	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
MO mo-money	Upavg 72.7¢	$498.43	$346.35	-$152.09	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
BO bosona	Upavg 74¢	$326.1	$222.67	-$103.44	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 74.7¢	$233	$213.72	-$19.28	45% 72-88 (160)
FI fiankee	Upavg 50¢	$154.05	$155.59	+$1.54	55% 28-23 (51)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 43.9¢	$101.73	$117.13	+$15.4	50% 864-867 (1731)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$40.15	$42.93	+$2.78	50% 376-373 (749)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 56¢	$44.47	$29.95	-$14.52	60% 3891-2648 (6539)
PL ply-pm2CTR	Downavg 38.4¢	$101.9	$14.36	+$0.89	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$7.1	$10.59	+$3.49	50% 1631-1654 (3285)
RA rabadabadooCTR	Downavg 13.8¢	$207.72	$6.52	-$4.68	47% 1558-1782 (3340)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$476.57

Value

$615.32

PnL

+$138.75

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$480.57

Value

$569.34

PnL

+$88.76

Record

49%

888-918 (1806)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,796.56

Value

$497.51

PnL

-$131.62

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.25

Value

$497.02

PnL

+$4.46

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Down$251.2549.7¢-$1.17

Up$244.550¢+$5.63

almach

Invested

$335.05

Value

$347.5

PnL

+$12.45

Record

51%

1504-1428 (2932)

mo-money

Invested

$498.43

Value

$346.35

PnL

-$152.09

Record

51%

1495-1438 (2933)

bosona

Invested

$326.1

Value

$222.67

PnL

-$103.44

Record

51%

4748-4550 (9298)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$233

Value

$213.72

PnL

-$19.28

Record

45%

72-88 (160)

fiankee

Invested

$154.05

Value

$155.59

PnL

+$1.54

Record

55%

28-23 (51)

PBot-6

Invested

$101.73

Value

$117.13

PnL

+$15.4

Record

50%

864-867 (1731)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.15

Value

$42.93

PnL

+$2.78

Record

50%

376-373 (749)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.47

Value

$29.95

PnL

-$14.52

Record

60%

3891-2648 (6539)

ply-pm2CTR

Down

Invested

$101.9

Value

$14.36

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$3.49

Record

50%

1631-1654 (3285)

rabadabadooCTR

Down

Invested

$207.72

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$4.68

Record

47%

1558-1782 (3340)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.9%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.