Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (61%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1PM ET

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 40¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Up61¢Down39¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$7.38

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 39.5¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up61%

Down40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$402.24

Total Shares691

Combined PnL+$13.9

Up1 trader

Total Value$76.12

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$21.28

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$84.97	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$355.33	$551.42	+$196.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$744.59	$463.53	-$281.06
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$515.4	$503.4	-$3.4	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$265.4	$304.2	+$38.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240	$199.2	-$42.2
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$382.21	$378.12	-$4.09	49% 802-821 (1623)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$294.15	$201.43	-$92.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$88.06	$176.69	+$88.63
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$362.36	$328.84	-$33.52	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$280.61	$260.36	-$20.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$81.75	$68.48	-$13.28
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 51¢	$253.07	$265.48	+$12.41	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$498.81	$259.18	-$3.11	46% 1189-1389 (2578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.5¢	$107.93	$165.51	+$73.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$141.37	$93.67	-$77.07
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 39¢	$97.4	$76.12	-$21.28	45% 29-36 (65)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$64.57	$65.12	+$0.55	51% 624-605 (1229)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$82.58	$50.68	-$10.83	60% 3075-2056 (5131)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.4¢	$43.85	$26.48	-$16.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$21.4	$24.2	+$5.56
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$41.75	$40.63	-$1.12	51% 279-272 (551)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$61.54	$31.01	+$2.07	54% 1878-1606 (3484)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,099.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$84.97

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

Both legs:

Up$355.3339¢+$196.09

Down$744.5963.5¢-$281.06

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$515.4

Value

$503.4

PnL

-$3.4

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Down$265.451¢+$38.8

Up$24050¢-$42.2

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$382.21

Value

$378.12

PnL

-$4.09

Record

49%

802-821 (1623)

Both legs:

Down$294.1557.7¢-$92.72

Up$88.0630.2¢+$88.63

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$362.36

Value

$328.84

PnL

-$33.52

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

Both legs:

Down$280.6163¢-$20.25

Up$81.7549.5¢-$13.28

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$253.07

Value

$265.48

PnL

+$12.41

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Down

Invested

$498.81

Value

$259.18

PnL

-$3.11

Record

46%

1189-1389 (2578)

Both legs:

Up$107.9339.5¢+$73.96

Down$141.3759.6¢-$77.07

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$97.4

Value

$76.12

PnL

-$21.28

Record

45%

29-36 (65)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$64.57

Value

$65.12

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

624-605 (1229)

aaa221ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$82.58

Value

$50.68

PnL

-$10.83

Record

60%

3075-2056 (5131)

Both legs:

Down$43.8565.4¢-$16.39

Up$21.453.5¢+$5.56

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.75

Value

$40.63

PnL

-$1.12

Record

51%

279-272 (551)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.54

Value

$31.01

PnL

+$2.07

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 61%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$137.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

237.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.