Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12PM ET

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 99.9¢

+23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,451

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down5 traders

Total Value$47.31

Total Shares627

Combined PnL-$163.19

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Down 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.7¢	$3.3K	$2.6K	-$644.15	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.7¢	$525.65	$505.09	-$11.23	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 88.5¢	$988	$442.76	-$135.05	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 90.6¢	$754.99	$236.89	-$17.73	46% 1189-1389 (2578)
AL almach	Upavg 97¢	$228.43	$189.16	-$39.27	50% 1107-1127 (2234)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 94¢	$235.46	$164.88	-$70.58	49% 802-821 (1623)
MO mo-money	Upavg 96.1¢	$184.8	$146.46	-$38.34	49% 1097-1145 (2242)
BO bosona	Upavg 96¢	$586.82	$94.08	-$155.7	51% 4353-4244 (8597)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$82.56	$31.25	-$51.3	51% 279-272 (551)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$35.9	$20	-$8.44	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 70¢	$12.18	$15.49	+$3.31	50% 157-157 (314)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$63.96	$10.95	-$53	51% 624-605 (1229)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$20.2	$2.64	-$12.38	60% 3075-2056 (5131)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$10.34	$1.76	-$8.58	47% 1726-1951 (3677)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 11.9¢	$38.66	$0.7	-$37.92	45% 29-36 (65)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,287.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$644.15

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$525.65

Value

$505.09

PnL

-$11.23

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$988

Value

$442.76

PnL

-$135.05

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$754.99

Value

$236.89

PnL

-$17.73

Record

46%

1189-1389 (2578)

almach

Invested

$228.43

Value

$189.16

PnL

-$39.27

Record

50%

1107-1127 (2234)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$235.46

Value

$164.88

PnL

-$70.58

Record

49%

802-821 (1623)

mo-money

Invested

$184.8

Value

$146.46

PnL

-$38.34

Record

49%

1097-1145 (2242)

bosona

Invested

$586.82

Value

$94.08

PnL

-$155.7

Record

51%

4353-4244 (8597)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.56

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$51.3

Record

51%

279-272 (551)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$35.9

Value

$20

PnL

-$8.44

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$3.31

Record

50%

157-157 (314)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.96

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$53

Record

51%

624-605 (1229)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.2

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$12.38

Record

60%

3075-2056 (5131)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.34

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$8.58

Record

47%

1726-1951 (3677)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.66

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$37.92

Record

45%

29-36 (65)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Down 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.