Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$695.89

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,022

Combined PnL-$497.71

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,279

Combined PnL-$198.18

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.4¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	-$353.64	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
AL almach	Upavg 99.8¢	$1.3K	$835.36	-$414.09	50% 1219-1216 (2435)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 57.6¢	$505.37	$497.37	-$8	49% 827-855 (1682)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.8¢	$519.84	$482.08	-$3.37	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 37.3¢	$341.41	$318.28	-$23.13	50% 302-300 (602)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$135.17	$199.35	+$64.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$206.24	$118.92	-$87.32
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 45.9¢	$289.7	$312.16	+$22.46	50% 673-674 (1347)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 79.1¢	$705.47	$215.76	+$67.94	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 68.1¢	$468.94	$181.24	+$12.5	46% 1295-1519 (2814)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 51¢	$207.88	$165	-$42.88	51% 4461-4339 (8800)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 53.2¢	$264.21	$62.79	+$202.7	44% 42-53 (95)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$50.73	$24.07	-$26.65	60% 3298-2213 (5511)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 26.5¢	$153.08	$11.27	-$141.8	49% 1204-1240 (2444)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$11.92	$11.18	-$0.74	50% 182-185 (367)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 96¢	$20.67	$10.12	-$5.12	54% 2059-1752 (3811)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 9.5¢	$6.2	$1.01	-$5.19	48% 1324-1417 (2741)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$3,630.15

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$353.64

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

almach

Invested

$1,317.57

Value

$835.36

PnL

-$414.09

Record

50%

1219-1216 (2435)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$505.37

Value

$497.37

PnL

-$8

Record

49%

827-855 (1682)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$519.84

Value

$482.08

PnL

-$3.37

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.41

Value

$318.28

PnL

-$23.13

Record

50%

302-300 (602)

Both legs:

Up$135.1753.2¢+$64.19

Down$206.2437.3¢-$87.32

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$289.7

Value

$312.16

PnL

+$22.46

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$705.47

Value

$215.76

PnL

+$67.94

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

rabadabadoo

Invested

$468.94

Value

$181.24

PnL

+$12.5

Record

46%

1295-1519 (2814)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$207.88

Value

$165

PnL

-$42.88

Record

51%

4461-4339 (8800)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$264.21

Value

$62.79

PnL

+$202.7

Record

44%

42-53 (95)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$50.73

Value

$24.07

PnL

-$26.65

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$153.08

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$141.8

Record

49%

1204-1240 (2444)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.92

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.74

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$20.67

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$5.12

Record

54%

2059-1752 (3811)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.2

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$5.19

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.