Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10PM ET

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 87¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Up13¢Down87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$907.41

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 87.4¢

+24% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up13%

Down87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,199

Combined PnL+$906.31

Up2 traders

Total Value$103.86

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$1.1

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 60.5¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$527.77	51% 2791-2702 (5493)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.3¢	$1.1K	$899.89	+$158.45	51% 1912-1810 (3722)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 69.3¢	$657.57	$789.71	+$132.14	49% 823-852 (1675)
AL almach	Downavg 93.9¢	$564.82	$577.14	+$12.33	50% 1203-1208 (2411)
BO bosona	Downavg 94¢	$522.09	$532.65	+$10.55	51% 4446-4332 (8778)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$520.69	$495.09	+$16.69	55% 2993-2461 (5454)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 96.1¢	$456.63	$443.89	-$12.74	46% 42-49 (91)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 61.7¢	$266.32	$295.89	+$29.57	50% 297-296 (593)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 49¢	$169.53	$171.26	+$1.73	50% 665-666 (1331)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 85.4¢	$414.32	$155.82	+$8.9	46% 1280-1506 (2786)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$97.42	$99.75	+$2.33	50% 1656-1666 (3322)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$40.6	$51.65	+$11.06	60% 3273-2196 (5469)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 42¢	$27.72	$32.67	+$4.95	49% 1190-1231 (2421)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 80¢	$12.15	$12.07	-$0.08	50% 180-183 (363)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 89¢	$35.97	$4.89	+$4.52	54% 2039-1735 (3774)
yen4u<$100	Downavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.73	+$0.47	42% 25-34 (59)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 18.8¢	$5.34	$4.11	-$1.23	48% 1309-1403 (2712)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,827.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$527.77

Record

51%

2791-2702 (5493)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,087.51

Value

$899.89

PnL

+$158.45

Record

51%

1912-1810 (3722)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$657.57

Value

$789.71

PnL

+$132.14

Record

49%

823-852 (1675)

almach

Down

Invested

$564.82

Value

$577.14

PnL

+$12.33

Record

50%

1203-1208 (2411)

bosona

Down

Invested

$522.09

Value

$532.65

PnL

+$10.55

Record

51%

4446-4332 (8778)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$520.69

Value

$495.09

PnL

+$16.69

Record

55%

2993-2461 (5454)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$456.63

Value

$443.89

PnL

-$12.74

Record

46%

42-49 (91)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$266.32

Value

$295.89

PnL

+$29.57

Record

50%

297-296 (593)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$169.53

Value

$171.26

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

665-666 (1331)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$414.32

Value

$155.82

PnL

+$8.9

Record

46%

1280-1506 (2786)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$97.42

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$2.33

Record

50%

1656-1666 (3322)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$40.6

Value

$51.65

PnL

+$11.06

Record

60%

3273-2196 (5469)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$27.72

Value

$32.67

PnL

+$4.95

Record

49%

1190-1231 (2421)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.15

Value

$12.07

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

180-183 (363)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$35.97

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$4.52

Record

54%

2039-1735 (3774)

yen4u<$100

Down

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.47

Record

42%

25-34 (59)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$1.23

Record

48%

1309-1403 (2712)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.1%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.