Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8PM ET

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$245.3

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 94.5¢

+42% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,050

Combined PnL-$28.59

Up2 traders

Total Value$36.17

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$216.71

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 56.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$142.01	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.5¢	$1.8K	$716.92	-$187.36	52% 1513-1391 (2904)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$525	+$25	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$300	+$50
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$225	-$25
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$525	+$25	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$300	+$50
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$225	-$25
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 74.7¢	$1.0K	$237.76	+$29.82	47% 1032-1185 (2217)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 62.6¢	$265.88	$232.9	+$1.81	49% 699-736 (1435)
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$193.36	$164.37	-$28.99	52% 252-235 (487)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$103	$119.25	+$16.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.1¢	$90.37	$45.13	-$45.24
BO bosona	Downavg 73¢	$195.96	$161.07	-$34.9	50% 4166-4088 (8254)
AL almach	Downavg 72.7¢	$134.41	$159.93	+$33.41	49% 924-967 (1891)
MO mo-money	Downavg 77¢	$159.69	$124.43	-$35.26	49% 924-973 (1897)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45¢	$52.79	$70.39	+$17.6	50% 500-496 (996)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$53.12	$49.46	+$7.77	54% 1721-1474 (3195)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 52.9¢	$250.64	$35.55	-$215.09	52% 13-12 (25)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$40.22	$26.29	-$3.51	60% 2636-1762 (4398)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 19.9¢	$2.23	$0.62	-$1.62	50% 306-311 (617)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,741.92

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$142.01

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,828.6

Value

$716.92

PnL

-$187.36

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$525

PnL

+$25

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$50

Up$25050¢-$25

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$525

PnL

+$25

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,013.53

Value

$237.76

PnL

+$29.82

Record

47%

1032-1185 (2217)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$265.88

Value

$232.9

PnL

+$1.81

Record

49%

699-736 (1435)

HsilverbasherARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.36

Value

$164.37

PnL

-$28.99

Record

52%

252-235 (487)

Both legs:

Invested

$195.96

Value

$161.07

PnL

-$34.9

Record

50%

4166-4088 (8254)

almach

Down

Invested

$134.41

Value

$159.93

PnL

+$33.41

Record

49%

924-967 (1891)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$159.69

Value

$124.43

PnL

-$35.26

Record

49%

924-973 (1897)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$52.79

Value

$70.39

PnL

+$17.6

Record

50%

500-496 (996)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$53.12

Value

$49.46

PnL

+$7.77

Record

54%

1721-1474 (3195)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$250.64

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$215.09

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$40.22

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$3.51

Record

60%

2636-1762 (4398)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$1.62

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.