Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7PM ET

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$493.02

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 98¢

+33% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,405

Combined PnL-$109.64

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,626

Combined PnL-$383.38

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 83.8¢	$783.27	$688.88	-$94.39	48% 677-723 (1400)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.4¢	$540.97	$612.55	+$129.77	50% 2029-2035 (4064)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
AL almach	Downavg 87¢	$379.13	$281.53	-$92.1	49% 897-952 (1849)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.4¢	$498.14	$260.82	-$50.98	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.5¢	$174.53	$185.66	+$11.13	50% 492-490 (982)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 88.3¢	$698.54	$102.95	-$23.62	46% 1005-1165 (2170)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$78.02	$50.16	+$3.62	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$29.41	$19.18	+$6.43	54% 1716-1459 (3175)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 85¢	$13.22	$13.29	+$0.07	51% 249-235 (484)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$248.53	$8.77	-$239.76	55% 11-9 (20)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$6.45	$8.03	+$1.58	47% 995-1129 (2124)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 46¢	$5.52	$5.94	+$0.42	48% 1267-1365 (2632)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$4	$4.75	+$0.75	49% 303-310 (613)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 2¢	$530.07	$1.3	-$145.94	50% 4140-4074 (8214)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$783.27

Value

$688.88

PnL

-$94.39

Record

48%

677-723 (1400)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$540.97

Value

$612.55

PnL

+$129.77

Record

50%

2029-2035 (4064)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

almach

Down

Invested

$379.13

Value

$281.53

PnL

-$92.1

Record

49%

897-952 (1849)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$498.14

Value

$260.82

PnL

-$50.98

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$174.53

Value

$185.66

PnL

+$11.13

Record

50%

492-490 (982)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$698.54

Value

$102.95

PnL

-$23.62

Record

46%

1005-1165 (2170)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$78.02

Value

$50.16

PnL

+$3.62

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$29.41

Value

$19.18

PnL

+$6.43

Record

54%

1716-1459 (3175)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

249-235 (484)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$248.53

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$239.76

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$1.58

Record

47%

995-1129 (2124)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

1267-1365 (2632)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$530.07

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$145.94

Record

50%

4140-4074 (8214)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.