Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6PM ET

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Down (47%) · Down at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Up16¢Down84¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$192.9

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 84.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up16%

Down85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,264

Combined PnL+$89.18

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,986

Combined PnL-$282.07

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Up 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76.1¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$256.43	50% 2029-2035 (4064)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 50.6¢	$790.19	$903.11	+$112.92	48% 677-723 (1400)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$10	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$10	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.4¢	$206.1	$412.92	+$206.82	50% 492-490 (982)
AN Anon455	Downavg 82.2¢	$366.13	$361.75	-$4.38	49% 303-310 (613)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 34¢	$3.8K	$340.9	-$577.95	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$363.25	$208.08	+$103.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.9¢	$151.57	$132.82	-$681.13
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 35.1¢	$1.6K	$250.17	+$75.15	46% 1005-1165 (2170)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$139.29	$193.19	-$77.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$159.92	$56.98	+$153.1
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 73.5¢	$204.47	$219.42	+$14.96	51% 249-235 (484)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 57.8¢	$274.14	$59.25	-$214.89	55% 11-9 (20)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 84¢	$97.13	$33.02	+$12.54	54% 1716-1459 (3175)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$14.66	$19.05	+$4.4	50% 4140-4074 (8214)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$15.03	$11.69	-$3.34	49% 897-952 (1849)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 37.8¢	$201.05	$10.76	-$36.29	48% 896-962 (1858)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$4.7	$7.45	+$2.75	47% 995-1129 (2124)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$47.25	$3.77	-$2.82	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$11.91	$2.78	-$9.13	49% 130-136 (266)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,477.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$256.43

Record

50%

2029-2035 (4064)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$790.19

Value

$903.11

PnL

+$112.92

Record

48%

677-723 (1400)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$10

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$206.1

Value

$412.92

PnL

+$206.82

Record

50%

492-490 (982)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$366.13

Value

$361.75

PnL

-$4.38

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$3,847.89

Value

$340.9

PnL

-$577.95

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

Both legs:

Up$363.2534¢+$103.18

Down$151.5791.9¢-$681.13

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$1,562.4

Value

$250.17

PnL

+$75.15

Record

46%

1005-1165 (2170)

Both legs:

Down$139.2963.1¢-$77.94

Up$159.9235.1¢+$153.1

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$204.47

Value

$219.42

PnL

+$14.96

Record

51%

249-235 (484)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$274.14

Value

$59.25

PnL

-$214.89

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$97.13

Value

$33.02

PnL

+$12.54

Record

54%

1716-1459 (3175)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$14.66

Value

$19.05

PnL

+$4.4

Record

50%

4140-4074 (8214)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$15.03

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$3.34

Record

49%

897-952 (1849)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$201.05

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$36.29

Record

48%

896-962 (1858)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$4.7

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$2.75

Record

47%

995-1129 (2124)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$47.25

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$2.82

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.91

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$9.13

Record

49%

130-136 (266)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Up 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.