Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (82%) · Down at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 99.3¢

+31% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,253

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,124

Combined PnL-$4.73

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Down 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 77.6¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$403.41	53% 1297-1168 (2465)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.7¢	$908.68	$1.2K	+$293.91	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 72.4¢	$512.32	$671.36	+$159.04	49% 586-614 (1200)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.4¢	$408	$588.07	+$303.07	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
MO mo-money	Downavg 88¢	$506	$557.75	+$51.75	46% 754-869 (1623)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
AN Anon455	Downavg 74.4¢	$363.07	$473.49	+$110.42	48% 283-301 (584)
AL almach	Downavg 88¢	$307.78	$339.26	+$31.48	47% 750-851 (1601)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 94.6¢	$902.51	$324.35	+$68.15	47% 891-1000 (1891)
DE devonpoll	Downavg 50¢	$181.03	$177.93	+$1	52% 274-257 (531)
BO bosona	Downavg 85¢	$140.99	$160.89	+$19.9	50% 3983-3986 (7969)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 94.3¢	$142.57	$145.67	+$3.1	51% 218-212 (430)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$44.45	$49.29	+$4.84	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 86¢	$12.04	$13.58	+$1.54	47% 101-113 (214)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$17.64	$10.99	+$13.35	53% 1476-1292 (2768)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$3.94	$0.81	-$4.73	47% 1521-1691 (3212)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,971.03

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$403.41

Record

53%

1297-1168 (2465)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$908.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$293.91

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$512.32

Value

$671.36

PnL

+$159.04

Record

49%

586-614 (1200)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$408

Value

$588.07

PnL

+$303.07

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$506

Value

$557.75

PnL

+$51.75

Record

46%

754-869 (1623)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$363.07

Value

$473.49

PnL

+$110.42

Record

48%

283-301 (584)

almach

Down

Invested

$307.78

Value

$339.26

PnL

+$31.48

Record

47%

750-851 (1601)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$902.51

Value

$324.35

PnL

+$68.15

Record

47%

891-1000 (1891)

devonpoll

Down

Invested

$181.03

Value

$177.93

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

274-257 (531)

bosona

Down

Invested

$140.99

Value

$160.89

PnL

+$19.9

Record

50%

3983-3986 (7969)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$142.57

Value

$145.67

PnL

+$3.1

Record

51%

218-212 (430)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$44.45

Value

$49.29

PnL

+$4.84

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.04

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$1.54

Record

47%

101-113 (214)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.64

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$13.35

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$4.73

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Down 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.