Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5PM ET

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$847.55

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 99.5¢

+55% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,282

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,553

Combined PnL-$169.46

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 52.7¢	$459.87	$728.47	+$309.59	50% 1992-1999 (3991)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 65.4¢	$533.42	$637.49	+$105.93	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
BO bosona	Downavg 69.2¢	$468.78	$602.65	+$133.87	50% 4125-4066 (8191)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
AN Anon455	Downavg 75.3¢	$402.81	$476.16	+$73.35	49% 302-309 (611)
RA rabadabadoo	Downavg 86.7¢	$623.17	$353.38	-$7.66	47% 997-1147 (2144)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 49.4¢	$211.49	$322.29	+$110.8	48% 665-716 (1381)
AL almach	Downavg 49¢	$157.35	$285.8	+$128.45	48% 885-942 (1827)
MO mo-money	Downavg 63.2¢	$199.84	$281.31	+$81.47	48% 884-955 (1839)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47¢	$67.34	$127.52	+$60.18	50% 487-483 (970)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 72.7¢	$112.84	$122.82	+$9.98	52% 248-231 (479)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 46.1¢	$218.46	$52.14	-$166.32	— 8-8 (16)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$30.48	$30.71	+$0.22	60% 2556-1710 (4266)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$29.24	$10.02	+$10.82	54% 1694-1445 (3139)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$11.79	$8.65	-$3.14	49% 130-136 (266)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$459.87

Value

$728.47

PnL

+$309.59

Record

50%

1992-1999 (3991)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$533.42

Value

$637.49

PnL

+$105.93

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

bosona

Down

Invested

$468.78

Value

$602.65

PnL

+$133.87

Record

50%

4125-4066 (8191)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$402.81

Value

$476.16

PnL

+$73.35

Record

49%

302-309 (611)

rabadabadoo

Down

Invested

$623.17

Value

$353.38

PnL

-$7.66

Record

47%

997-1147 (2144)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$211.49

Value

$322.29

PnL

+$110.8

Record

48%

665-716 (1381)

almach

Down

Invested

$157.35

Value

$285.8

PnL

+$128.45

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$199.84

Value

$281.31

PnL

+$81.47

Record

48%

884-955 (1839)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$67.34

Value

$127.52

PnL

+$60.18

Record

50%

487-483 (970)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$112.84

Value

$122.82

PnL

+$9.98

Record

52%

248-231 (479)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$218.46

Value

$52.14

PnL

-$166.32

Record

—

8-8 (16)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$30.48

Value

$30.71

PnL

+$0.22

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$29.24

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$10.82

Record

54%

1694-1445 (3139)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.79

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$3.14

Record

49%

130-136 (266)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.