Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (55%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5AM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up46¢Down54¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$4.29

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 45.5¢

-13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up46%

Down55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$0.22

Down5 traders

Total Value$239.02

Total Shares494

Combined PnL+$4.07

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 53.2¢	$1.0K	$920.21	-$50.28	51% 1641-1598 (3239)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$441.6	$465.62	+$26.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.2¢	$531.48	$454.59	-$76.89
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$1.1K	$383.84	-$283.72	53% 1264-1138 (2402)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$365.98	$251.83	-$186.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$159.24	$132.01	-$97.55
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$526.45	$239.01	-$31.6	47% 868-975 (1843)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$101.68	$123.99	+$31.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.9¢	$155.63	$115.01	-$63.29
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$85.7	$88.5	+$2.8	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$79.95	$80.17	+$0.22	48% 279-297 (576)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 38.5¢	$47.18	$52.12	+$4.93	49% 570-602 (1172)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 67¢	$46.89	$48.64	+$1.75	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$33.22	$31.69	-$1.53	51% 212-207 (419)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$21.97	$18.07	-$3.89	53% 1437-1267 (2704)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,004.09

Value

$920.21

PnL

-$50.28

Record

51%

1641-1598 (3239)

Both legs:

Down$441.651.7¢+$26.61

Up$531.4853.2¢-$76.89

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$1,114.18

Value

$383.84

PnL

-$283.72

Record

53%

1264-1138 (2402)

Both legs:

Up$365.9866.1¢-$186.17

Down$159.2465.7¢-$97.55

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$526.45

Value

$239.01

PnL

-$31.6

Record

47%

868-975 (1843)

Both legs:

Down$101.6846.3¢+$31.69

Up$155.6358.9¢-$63.29

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$85.7

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$2.8

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$79.95

Value

$80.17

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

279-297 (576)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$47.18

Value

$52.12

PnL

+$4.93

Record

49%

570-602 (1172)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$46.89

Value

$48.64

PnL

+$1.75

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$33.22

Value

$31.69

PnL

-$1.53

Record

51%

212-207 (419)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$21.97

Value

$18.07

PnL

-$3.89

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.